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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

4. The Hughes glazing for taking advantage of a special needs GM needs to chill. That was borderline abuse.

I didn’t give Hughes props for “abusing” Tre — lots of people did that. But he’s one of the rare GMs who figured out late first rounders were overvalued, and were useful beyond getting a veteran on an expiring contract at the deadline… these late 1st round picks can also be leveraged on draft day to acquire young plug-and-play talent that can be signed long-term.

He’s done it every year until Tre forgot his password
 
Am I missing something? Haven't late firsts been traded like crazy for a long while? The smartest GMs have been trading them to get a guy with multiple years left, with some retention even! The Hagel and Jake McCabe kind of trades!

Don't think this was a Hughes invention unless I'm missing something.
 
This reminds me of leafs fans thinking pridham is the only person in the NHL who read the cba.

See? We are all the same
 
Am I missing something? Haven't late firsts been traded like crazy for a long while? The smartest GMs have been trading them to get a guy with multiple years left, with some retention even! The Hagel and Jake McCabe kind of trades!

Don't think this was a Hughes invention unless I'm missing something.

LOL I didn’t say he was the first… or the only one… simply said he’s in the minority to do it every year.
 
LOL I didn’t say he was the first… or the only one… simply said he’s in the minority to do it every year.
Nearly every playoff team does it, it's hardly groundbreaking!

Taking advantage of Bundy is way more impressive than trading 1st rounders.
 
It's revolutionary to trade 1st rounders for players!

I'm more impressed by GMs who target good players instead of Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton. That's way more rare than trading draft picks.
 
I don’t think late firsts are overvalued I think teams are just dumb and trade them for rentals.

At the deadline they’re just chips. At the draft, they’re the dude you fell in love with at the combine. Value is somewhere in between
<insert Presto’s quantum draft formula>
 
I've never dismissed the subjective. I've admitted to it numerous times. It's actually at the core of why I want to trade certain players and keep certain players and I've been open about that. The gap between certain players value on the ice vs value in the trade market.

What I dismiss is that an executive spending a significant amount of time it takes to try to turn shit into sugar at the busiest time of the year, is using their time well. Everyone wants to trade their trash for treasure, this isn't a novel or ingenious concept. But the "timing and conditions" as you put it are either in place or they aren't, and they usually aren't. For example...we ended up overpaying for Carlo (and Laughton) in the 1st place because our GM overrated his team (because he was bad at objective analysis), was needlessly desperate to add size and snot to a team without the underlying metrics of an actual contender and all of this was happening under time pressure (that we've learned since he's really, really bad under). There's your timing and conditions needed for stupidity to arrive. But neither Boston or Los Angeles got to manufacture those. They had to have the right things available at the right time.

Remove the timing and conditions and we don't give up a top 5 protected 1st for a 18mpg RHD. We decide that price is too high and find someone who can do the job for cheaper.
This is a flowery way of saying that Tre is an idiot, which he is regardless of timing and conditions. He made two dumb trades within minutes of each other, and had nothing else going on, and then at this past deadline when the pressure was off and all he had to do was sell and fill up empty cap space and failed so bad that a corporate suit with zero hockey knowledge understood that he had to be cut asap.

So, timing and conditions are only excuses for stupidity that leads to failure or mistakes. When he was desperate, he blew it, and when he wasn't desperate, he did nothing and then famously told the media after the deadline that he was going to devise a plan soon. That guy is dumb all day and in all situations, so dumb that he couldn't even execute on his dumbest trade of Knies because he was late to submit it. You identify this type of guy, befriend him, work on him during the year, and look for a chance to strike. No chart or calculator will save him from doom.

Not everyone is as dumb as him though. But others have different problems - maybe budgetary, maybe put in a corner by a player (Brady), maybe feeling the heat of about to get fired. Desperation comes in many forms. And some can be dumb in their subjective assessments based on some bias, or just a bad group of scouts conveying recommendations. The human element is needed to target and capitalize, and it can overcome any stat or other data point.
 
This is a flowery way of saying that Tre is an idiot, which he is regardless of timing and conditions. He made two dumb trades within minutes of each other, and had nothing else going on, and then at this past deadline when the pressure was off and all he had to do was sell and fill up empty cap space and failed so bad that a corporate suit with zero hockey knowledge understood that he had to be cut asap.

So, timing and conditions are only excuses for stupidity that leads to failure or mistakes. When he was desperate, he blew it, and when he wasn't desperate, he did nothing and then famously told the media after the deadline that he was going to devise a plan soon. That guy is dumb all day and in all situations, so dumb that he couldn't even execute on his dumbest trade of Knies because he was late to submit it. You identify this type of guy, befriend him, work on him during the year, and look for a chance to strike. No chart or calculator will save him from doom.

Not everyone is as dumb as him though. But others have different problems - maybe budgetary, maybe put in a corner by a player (Brady), maybe feeling the heat of about to get fired. Desperation comes in many forms. And some can be dumb in their subjective assessments based on some bias, or just a bad group of scouts conveying recommendations. The human element is needed to target and capitalize, and it can overcome any stat or other data point.

Sure, but the key imperative here though is that you don't get to determine when stupidity arrives, only the moron does. You can prepare yourself for it and present the moron with an opportunity to be stupid, but it's not something you can sit around and wait to have happen when your concern is building a team and not min/maxing every player transaction.
 
This is a flowery way of saying that Tre is an idiot, which he is regardless of timing and conditions. He made two dumb trades within minutes of each other, and had nothing else going on, and then at this past deadline when the pressure was off and all he had to do was sell and fill up empty cap space and failed so bad that a corporate suit with zero hockey knowledge understood that he had to be cut asap.

So, timing and conditions are only excuses for stupidity that leads to failure or mistakes. When he was desperate, he blew it, and when he wasn't desperate, he did nothing and then famously told the media after the deadline that he was going to devise a plan soon. That guy is dumb all day and in all situations, so dumb that he couldn't even execute on his dumbest trade of Knies because he was late to submit it. You identify this type of guy, befriend him, work on him during the year, and look for a chance to strike. No chart or calculator will save him from doom.

Not everyone is as dumb as him though. But others have different problems - maybe budgetary, maybe put in a corner by a player (Brady), maybe feeling the heat of about to get fired. Desperation comes in many forms. And some can be dumb in their subjective assessments based on some bias, or just a bad group of scouts conveying recommendations. The human element is needed to target and capitalize, and it can overcome any stat or other data point.


AI writing getting better every day.
Only one em-dash
 
Sure, but the key imperative here though is that you don't get to determine when stupidity arrives, only the moron does. You can prepare yourself for it and present the moron with an opportunity to be stupid, but it's not something you can sit around and wait to have happen when your concern is building a team and not min/maxing every player transaction.
My point to you is that stupidity is always there. Desperation is always there. But it's just not static - it moves, and you just have to keep looking for and finding it.

Buffalo found it with Chicago and Byram. It was there waiting. Chicago just got it back from Ottawa with unloading Burakovsky. Ottawa took it on the chin in the Brady situation (imo). It's all over the place right now.

Yeah, you can run around making hockey trades, but as I've said in the past, these are lateral moves. You trade Knies for a top dman, now you need to find another Knies. You keep your best players and keep looking for that market inefficiency that comes in the form of stupidity or desperation and that's where you really take jumps forward in roster building.
 
My point to you is that stupidity is always there. Desperation is always there. But it's just not static - it moves, and you just have to keep looking for and finding it.

But again, and kind of importantly, when you have a whole ass team to build your timing matters more than obsessive min/maxing on each transaction.

For example, we're trying to trade Brandon Carlo right now. There is a cost inherent to not trading him for what the market will give you right now (you have to watch him play hockey, he's a pending UFA at the end of the year, etc). So if someone offers you a 2nd rounder now and that's the best offer out there, do you take it or insist that you're waiting for someone to be stupid and give you the mythical 1st for Carlo + Maccelli?

Too early, or too late is indecipherable from being wrong. The market is what it is when you try to access it to make a transaction. That stupidity theoretically exists in the market at all times doesn't change that.
 
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