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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

if he wants to remake the 4th line to be fast and good forecheckers, at least that makes sense. What doesn't is having 7 4th liners.


Also, spending almost a combined $20M in AAV on that motley collection of 4th liners.

Stephen Lorentz at $1.35M is currently slated to be the cheapest guy in our bottom six next year by over $1M in AAV. And every one of them is on multi-year deals.

Just cap space lit on fire for the most insanely stupid reasons.
 
I mean maybe. He spend some time there last year, not sure if the results were particularly impressive. I'd say Cowan, Paul, Roslovic are easily ahead of him, perhaps Sissons as well.

even strength pace last year:

Roslovic 20/37 (playing with McDrai)
Joshua 15/27
Paul 10/19
Sissons 8/11

last 3yrs

Roslovic 18/36
Paul 16/31
Joshua 15/28
Sissons 8/20
 
Still blows my mind that Roslovic spent the entirety of last summer unsigned and begging for a contract, before finally settling for a training camp invite from the Oilers, followed by a 1 year/$1M contract signed on the eve of the regular season.

Then after putting up essentially the same season in 25/26 as he did the year before, our boy genius jumps on him first thing on July 1st and hands him $4M per year on a multi-year deal.
 
I'm certain that was all for Matthews.

The question is, how does Sissons get more than him despite the numbers zeke just posted above? Honestly, if he's prime Bergeron or even Danault defensively, I'm open to hearing that case in favor, but if not, then what the fuck.
 
I'm certain that was all for Matthews.

The question is, how does Sissons get more than him despite the numbers zeke just posted above? Honestly, if he's prime Bergeron or even Danault defensively, I'm open to hearing that case in favor, but if not, then what the fuck.

His D is above avg (but not elite)

1783025438204.png
 
P1/60 2024-2026

IN
Nick Paul (127 games): 1.12 --> was 0.83 last year, have to hope that isn't the new him or this is gonna look way worse
Roslovic (150 games): 1.48
Sissons (138 games): 0.88
Duhaime (164 games): 0.64
Blueger (117 games): 0.98
Avg: 1.02

FYI Joshua (112 games): 1.17

OUT
Maccelli (126 games): 1.34
Robertson (147 games): 1.41
McMann (152 games): 1.48
Laughton (144 games): 1.16
Roy (145 games): 1.08
Avg: 1.29

We knew they were gonna be way worse offensively, hopefully they are good enough defensively to make up for it!

1783025957122.png
 
5v5 avg of p1/60 and p/60

Last Year ---> Last 2 years

Matthews 1.83 --> Matthews 1.97
Nylander 2.45 --> Nylander 2.16
Knies 1.79 --> Knies 1.76

Tavares 1.67 --> Tavares 1.90
McMann 1.53 --> McKenna ??
Maccelli 1.83 --> Roslovic 1.70

Roy 1.11 --> Paul 1.30
Cowan 1.30 --> Cowan 1.30
Joshua 1.56 --> Joshua 1.24

Laughton 1.15 --> Sissons 0.91
Domi 1.18 --> Blueger 1.24
Robertson 1.65 --> Duhaime 0.78

Lorentz 1.11 --> Lorentz 1.13
Jarnkrok 0.81 --> ????
 
Here's all I've got as far as this path "making sense".

The biggest fire Chayka and Sundin walked into was Matthews. We just watched Auston get his knee shredded by a habitual cheap shot merchant and our response as a team was somewhere between tepid and fucking embarrassing. I have no doubt that when they actually had a chance to talk to Auston, that this or things similar to this came up in conversation. We've historically been a team that doesn't respond very well to that type of hockey. Not that we play scared against it, just that we don't respond to it. Treliving and Berube, despite all of the bluster and bullshit built the biggest bitch version of the Leafs we've seen yet. Then we won the lottery in a draft where the clear #1 is a small winger who to his credit isn't afraid to commit assault in a bar. It's not that Auston or McKenna need protection (because we know that shit doesn't work), it's that the need competitive guys around here to change the on ice culture of not sticking up for each other. Everyone we picked up (other than Roslovic) will stick their nose into it. They'll all start scrums, they'll all fight if they need to, etc.

I mean, take a step back and think of what someone like Mats Sundin would say about the Matthews knee injury. The only guy who got sufficiently angry about it was the guy who apparently playing through something that needed back surgery.

I think Chayka wanted to reset that part of the roster hard whether it was the right analytics play or not.

Not saying that I agree, just saying that it makes sense when viewed through that lens. There are no cardio merchants who skip out on the extra curriculars in that bottom group of players now.
 
Here's all I've got as far as this path "making sense".

The biggest fire Chayka and Sundin walked into was Matthews. We just watched Auston get his knee shredded by a habitual cheap shot merchant and our response as a team was somewhere between tepid and fucking embarrassing. I have no doubt that when they actually had a chance to talk to Auston, that this or things similar to this came up in conversation. We've historically been a team that doesn't respond very well to that type of hockey. Not that we play scared against it, just that we don't respond to it. Treliving and Berube, despite all of the bluster and bullshit built the biggest bitch version of the Leafs we've seen yet. Then we won the lottery in a draft where the clear #1 is a small winger who to his credit isn't afraid to commit assault in a bar. It's not that Auston or McKenna need protection (because we know that shit doesn't work), it's that the need competitive guys around here to change the on ice culture of not sticking up for each other. Everyone we picked up (other than Roslovic) will stick their nose into it. They'll all start scrums, they'll all fight if they need to, etc.

I mean, take a step back and think of what someone like Mats Sundin would say about the Matthews knee injury. The only guy who got sufficiently angry about it was the guy who apparently playing through something that needed back surgery.

I think Chayka wanted to reset that part of the roster hard whether it was the right analytics play or not.

Not saying that I agree, just saying that it makes sense when viewed through that lens. There are no cardio merchants who skip out on the extra curriculars in that bottom group of players now.
I think in addition to this, with Dubas it was low-event hockey ... if our bottom 6 doesn't give up a goal, it's a win. At least here, the goal is be very hard to play against. They should be more physical at the very least. And now it'll be easier to move the puck our of our end, because we don't have 3 d-men who handle it like a live grenade.

If he'd added one two-way 3rd liner (preferably a 3C like Jenner, though he's getting old and broken down so I can see the argument there) and only one of Sissons/Blueger, it would make a lot more sense.
 
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