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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

Preston said:
Leafs can trade Knies right now for 1/2 Werenski. They won't. And shouldn't. Because 1/2 Werenski isn't as rare as one may think. But they can.
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Okay…. Says the guy who thinks Knies is one of the top trade asset of the past decade. Funny how you guys like to use Net Rating and other nerdies unless it devalues the case you’re trying to make
 
CH1 said:
Okay…. Says the guy who thinks Knies is one of the top trade asset of the past decade. Funny how you guys like to use Net Rating and other nerdies unless it devalues the case you’re trying to make
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I think you're struggling with context here on Knies. And now you're scrambling and using hyperbole to try to prove your point. I let your mythical 1/2 of werenski trade idea slip but not this one!
 
Preston said:
I think you're struggling with context here on Knies. And now you're scrambling and using hyperbole to try to prove your point. I let your mythical 1/2 of werenski trade idea slip but not this one!
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for sure, but my hyperbole pales in comparison to your expected return for Knies. I am simply trying to keep up!
 
CH1 said:
for sure, but my hyperbole pales in comparison to your expected return for Knies. I am simply trying to keep up!
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My expected return for Knies is a 4th overall pick. I want more than that, but I don't expect any more than that. I've stated this multiple times already.

On the other hand, I also believe that a 23 year old, cheap and locked in power forward is an attractive starting point for a 2 years of a d that has asked out and will not re-sign with their team.

Yet you're scrambling and making things up by pretending that the leafs can't put forth a competitive offer even in the face of the Hughes trade where they didn't get anything nearly as good as Knies. I agree it's largely pointless discussion because he won't come to Toronto, but I'm really struggling with your argument on this one. Coming from a usually very reasonable bloke too!
 
No one here wants to trade Knies. BUT, he is the exact type of player that the OBC goes gaga over. Like, loses their shit over.

6'3 all day, 23 years old and with multiple years of control. Plus, American. And a 29 goal scorer. He will get overvalued.

For weeks here, no one wants to trade him, but for the very best or a Godfather offer. Werenski is that guy.
 
After all the Tkachuk shit talking and watching him go for far more value than a 4th overall pick despite having a 1 team trade list, 4th overall is now crazy for Knies. Ok.
 
Preston said:
After all the Tkachuk shit talking and watching him go for far more value than a 4th overall pick despite having a 1 team trade list, 4th overall is now crazy for Knies. Ok.
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My premise is that however teams value Knies, they value Tkachuk even higher. He actually brings that nasty edge GMs want in a power forward (Knies is big but not a dgen asshole about it)

Plus Brady has been a PPG player in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Knies has yet to do it.
 
CH1 said:
My premise is that however teams value Knies, they value Tkachuk even higher. He actually brings that nasty edge GMs want in a power forward (Knies is big but not a dgen asshole about it)

Plus Brady has been a PPG player in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Knies has yet to do it.
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Oh I've baked in Brady being valued higher into my evaluation. He got way more than just a 4th. On a 1 team trade list.

But, unlike Knies, you've gotta re-sign the player in a couple years. And he's a few years older than Knies.

But I was kind. Even ignoring all of that, I still have Knies as having significantly less value than him.
 
So beyond the 4 Nations/Olympic Gold and Team USA group chat, the real underlying factor here IMO is that expansion/parity has made it really tough for small market and/or rebuilding teams to make real progress without incredible drafting.
 
CH1 said:
Okay…. Says the guy who thinks Knies is one of the top trade asset of the past decade. Funny how you guys like to use Net Rating and other nerdies unless it devalues the case you’re trying to make
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Analytic value and market value aren't in perfect alignment. The main reason I entertain trading him is the likely spread between the two.
 
Preston said:
Oh I've baked in Brady being valued higher into my evaluation. He got way more than just a 4th. On a 1 team trade list.

But, unlike Knies, you've gotta re-sign the player in a couple years. And he's a few years older than Knies.

But I was kind. Even ignoring all of that, I still have Knies as having significantly less value than him.
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I have a personal problem with the draft calculator people use for the NHL. Maybe the 25th and 9th = 4th on paper, but I've never see it happen in real life. I very much doubt any team would trade out of the top 5 for the privilege of picking up a dart to throw at 25.

especially with the draft a few days away, and people drooling what stud D-man will be available at #4
 
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