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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

Preston said:
Upside. The difference is upside. Leafs aren't trading Knies for a bunch of B and C pieces. The appeal of the 4 is its distribution of outcomes. Its expected value might be similar to a package of lesser assets, but it has much higher variance and a meaningful probability of producing a true franchise player at a premium position. That's what the Leafs are chasing here.

But.. as I've stated several times and as Chayka has stated to teams, just the 4th pick is fair-ish value even ignoring the power forward bias. From a pure data and historical perspective, it's fair value. But why would that make sense for a team that's in win-now mode? It needs to be more than just the 4.
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Cant believe we’re stuck with gms saying gobbledygook like probability and outcomes

Gimme the snot tenacity and truculence pls
 
CH1 said:
I'm not arguing why you guys hate the trade -- totally got that on day one.

just arguing the NHL calculator as some sort of bible (the way it is in the NFL, where 4th rounders step in and start)

the flaw with the NHL calculator is that most first rounders involve waiting around two years just to see if you actually have anything

there's a cost to waiting so long (or in your words "how the fuck does that help us compete and keep matthews?")
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i think this is like, more to do with a separate argument you were having.

no values calculator is a bible, teams have different motivations, agreed.

think they more use em to figure out approx how much they should give up to move up or down. doesn't mean that team will accept.
 
The thing thats happening with Knies is sort of what happened with Byram.

Being treated as a 1LW and 1D despite not doing it yet, with the potential to do so

The difference, is Knies has value at what he is if he just stays as a beast 2LW cause of the contract he's on, Byram is going to be paid like a 1 despit not being it yet ( and likely wont)
 
The whole point is that you'd much rather take on some level of risk to chase a potential of higher upside than a bunch of B and C prospects. Replacing Knies with guys that combined, project to bring as much value as Knies one day, is kind of shit for where the leafs are at.

If anything, you use the asset to take a swing at a potential franchise changer and accept that you may have a higher chance of making a dud of a trade (but hopefully you have an edge with your scouting that lowers the risk!).
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
The thing thats happening with Knies is sort of what happened with Byram.

Being treated as a 1LW and 1D despite not doing it yet, with the potential to do so

The difference, is Knies has value at what he is if he just stays as a beast 2LW cause of the contract he's on, Byram is going to be paid like a 1 despit not being it yet ( and likely wont)
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wtf are you on. Knies has basically been a 30 g 60 pt guy and his deal is now a bargain. And he’s younger than Byram.
 
hockeylover said:
i think this is like, more to do with a separate argument you were having.

no values calculator is a bible, teams have different motivations, agreed.

think they more use em to figure out approx how much they should give up to move up or down. doesn't mean that team will accept.
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The other thing also, unlike the NFL where teams routinely move up and down the draft board, the NHL counterpart is a massive snooze fest in that regard
 
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