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The Official Post-Bitch 2025-26 Regular Season Thread

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curious what the ice time of the 4th will be, because they need to develop Cowan and they paid a high price for Laughton.
 
leafman101 said:
5v5 p/60 last 3 years
1. Matthews - 2.65
(Marner - 2.64)
2. Nylander - 2.32
3. Domi - 2.09
4. Tavares - 2
5. Knies - 1.95
6. Maccelli - 1.94
(Robertson 1.88)
(Krok - 1.81)
7. McMann - 1.79
8. Roy - 1.68
9. Joshua - 1.56
(Holmberg 1.41)
10. Laughton - 1.38
(Kampf - 1.21)
11. Lorentz (1.16)
(Dewar 1.14)
(Reaves 1.03)

Cowan ??

They have 6 pretty productive forwards, 3 solid bottom 6 producers, and way less blackholes at the bottom of the lineup.

If Cowan is good that would be a big boost.
Click to expand...

I think you're underselling some of those numbers - the McMann/Roy/Joshua numbers there are better than just sold bottom 6 production.

lemme just see if doing a 2yr split (cuz 3yrs ago might be ancient history) and cutting second assists in half (to ditch any passenger inflation) makes any significant difference here.


Elite Production

1. Matthews 2.48

Good 1st Line Production

2. Nylander 2.03
3. Domi 1.95
4. Tavares 1.91

Good 2nd Line / Borderline 1st Line Production

5. Robertson 1.77
6. Knies 1.75
7. McMann 1.68

Good 3rd Line / Borderline 2nd Line Production

8. Maccelli 1.58
9. Roy 1.56
10. Joshua 1.46

Good 4th Line / Borderline 3rd Line Production

11. Jarnkrok 1.32
12. Laughton 1.27

Pure 4th Line Only Production

13. Kampf 0.98
14. Lorentz 0.94

N/A

15. Cowan


I'm not going to complain about Lorentz taking Jarnkrok out of the lineup, considering Jarnkrok is always a zero when it counts anyways. And I like the way Lorentz plays and one guy with just plain 4th line production shouldn't be a killer.

I think we got really unlucky with Laughton last year - he was never some good 3rd line C that we should have paid for, but him turning into an absolute pumpkin for us offensively was unlucky. He's usually a decent 3rd line producer, so should be a luxury on the 4th line.

I'm scared of Joshua on the 3rd line but I can admit that i might be wrong on him.

And if anyone is going to boot Robertson out of the lineup, Cowan is the one that makes me the least upset about it. He should be able to produce and bring an all around game too.



Of course the problem offensively is that we just don't get nearly enough production from the dmen. Hopefully the more aggressive pinching we see in preseason is something that helps change that.
 
To get a better idea of how that production compares let's take a look how the Bolts and Panthers look in comparison - i'll leave Barkov in for this comp because i want to compare to two top teams:


Matthews 2.48 --- Kucherov 2.63 --- Tkachuk 2.02
Nylander 2.03 --- Hagel 2.27 --- Barkov 2.01
Domi 1.95 --- Point 2.14 --- Reinhart 1.94

Tavares 1.91 --- Guentzel 1.99 --- Verhaeghe 1.78
Robertson 1.77 --- Pelletier 1.66 --- Lundell 1.54
Knies 1.75 --- Bjorkstrand 1.64 --- Bennett 1.54

McMann 1.68 --- Paul 1.43 --- Marchand 1.45
Maccelli 1.58 --- Cirelli 1.39 --- Boqvist 1.27
Roy 1.56 --- Gourde 1.36 --- Rodrigues 1.16

Joshua 1.46 --- Goncalves 1.29 --- Samoskevich 1.15
Jarnkrok 1.32 --- Girgensons 1.15 --- Greer 1.13
Laughton 1.27 --- Holmberg 1.13 --- Luostarinen 0.99

Kampf 0.98 --- Chafee 1.07 --- Nosek 0.82
Lorentz 0.94 --- Katchouk 0.94 --- Kunin 0.82
Cowan n/a --- Geekie 1.11 --- Gadjovich 0.76​
 
Yeah our third and fourth lines look real good actually, and people are underselling the top 6 because they don't realize Domi has been an elite 5v5 playmaker.
 
a huge thing could be this:


Last Year:

Knies-Matthews-Marner: 595min, 61.3gf% (3.65gf/60, 2.31ga/60), 56.5xgf% (3.35xgf/60, 2.58xga/60) -- Plyff: 145min, 62.4gf%, 55.7xgf%
Knies-Matthews-Domi: 43min, 75.4gf% (4.30gf/60, 1.41ga/60), 76.6xgf% (3.47xgf/60, 1.06xga/60) -- Plyff: 0min

year before:

Knies-Matthews-Marner: 406min, 67.0gf% (3.56gf/60, 1.75ga/60), 59.0xgf% (3.17xgf/60, 2.22xga/60) --- Plyff: 0min
Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi: 148min, 59.3gf% (6.59gf/60, 4.52ga/60), 66.4xgf% (4.62xgf/60, 2.22xga/60) --- Plyff: 40min, 58.6gf%, 51.2xgf%
Knies-Matthews-Domi: 12min, 0.0gf% (0.00gf/60, 9.76ga/69), 55.6xgf% (4.66xgf/60, 3.72xga/60) --- Plyff: 0min


There were very good reasons to split Matthews and Marner up the last 2-3 years, but we never really did.

And there is likely different usage involved here, but it's also a plain fact that on lines without Marner, mostly with Domi in there somwhere, the Matthews line were just as good as they were with Marner.

There's actually no real reason a Knies-Matthews-Domi line can't be a dominant 1st line, as long as Matthews is back. And if we get dominant first line performance while also upgrading our 3rd line with an actual 3C like Roy instead of with Domi trying his best but unable to fill that role properly, things could look pretty dang good.
 
here's how the leafs compare to the next 3 teams ranked above them:



#6 DAL

1759409356847.png



#5 CAR

1759409393286.png



#4 VGK


1759409417864.png
 
Do we have numbers for our 3rd pair with OEL-Benoit and OEL-Myers.

Unless Myers is a terrible PKer, he already plays the right-side effectively.
 
BG said:
Do we have numbers for our 3rd pair with OEL-Benoit and OEL-Myers.

Unless Myers is a terrible PKer, he already plays the right-side effectively.
Click to expand...

there's no number that will make Benoit look good.

but that rush to set up that Domi goal tho....
 
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