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OT: American Politics

Re: OT: Canadian Politics

Tim moen of the libertarian party of canada has offered to step aside for Maxime Bernier.

I would vote for that.
 
CH1 said:
GOP can't be happy


Illinois House passes automatic voter registration bill. Already passed Senate. Could add 2 million new voters.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/illinois/articles/2017-05-29/illinois-legislature-oks-automatic-voter-registration

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https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/869549479694925825
 
Altair said:
Ok, so it starts off describing the conditions that lead to Nazi Germany and Hitler, so Godwin's law right off the bat.

So ignoring the utter stupidity of that, and pretending for a second that you didn't just go there, the second part discussed the supposed downfall if the American lead order due to Trump being president.

Now lets be clear, I agree 100% that trump isn't a suitable president. But if the international order cannot withstand 4 years of trump it was doomed to fail at some point or another. Every county has it's isolationist phase, it's brief withdrawal from the international order. France took it's ball and left NATO for example. So these things happen. Yes, it's different when it's the leader of the international order taking a leave of it's senses, but these 4-8 years of Trump will simply be the Trump era, nothing more, nothing less. The international order should continue on, if anything, strengthen by this, because others will begin to assert their leadership in the void that trump leaves. Europe should find it's voice, Germany should take their place at the head of that leadership, or France. The Brits or French should begin to assert themselves in NATO circles, and at the end of the trump era, if and or when the US is ready to reengage with international organizations they will accept the US with open arms because they will be stronger with the USA than without. I fully expect Canada and the EU to take the lead on the environment, and continue with the Paris accord without the USA.

Already we are seeing signs of nations willing to go on without the US, without Trump, and few signs of these organizations falling to pieces the way your twitter buddy seems to think they will. But then again, to you, the sky really is falling so nothing I just wrote will resonate with you, or prompt anything but a one line two brain cell response from you.

Hell, you don't even forward many of your own thoughts anymore, you're just a constant retweeter of doom. Outsourcing your critical thinking. Bravo.
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http://news.nationalpost.com/news/w...e-will-have-to-take-our-fate-in-our-own-hands

European leaders are developing plans to deepen military cooperation independently of the United States. They are also reaching out to economic partners in Asia that Trump has spurned. All of those shifts will have consequences that extend years, analysts say.
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The landslide election in France of President Emmanuel Macron this month has revived hopes for Franco-German cooperation on efforts to bolster European defense initiatives. European leaders want to coordinate their defense purchasing and do more to have standing military capabilities that are deployable outside NATO command structures, where the United States is the dominant force.

Germany hiked its military spending by $2.2 billion this year, to $41 billion, though it remains far from being able to stand on its own militarily.

Merkel and Macron have vowed to work together to further the pro-globalization agenda that Trump stands against.
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Doesn't appear to be falling apart Zeke!
 
zeke said:
erm, your article tells us that germany/france are setting out on their own without the US (or britain). that is the free world falling apart.
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So a more independent, self reliant, assertive Europe is your definition of the free world falling apart?

Not what I imagine when I think of the free world falling apart, but to each their own.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

Altair said:
Tim moen of the libertarian party of canada has offered to step aside for Maxime Bernier.

I would vote for that.
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Considering the Libertarian party of Canada ran a candidate in almost every riding in Canada in 2015 and came away with 0.21% of the popular vote, I'd say it's safe to write off that offer as a fringe party's desperate publicity stunt.
 
Altair said:
So a more independent, self reliant, assertive Europe is your definition of the free world falling apart?

Not what I imagine when I think of the free world falling apart, but to each their own.
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the free world splitting apart and going in its own directions does not make anyone stronger.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

LeafGm said:
Considering the Libertarian party of Canada ran a candidate in almost every riding in Canada in 2015 and came away with 0.21% of the popular vote, I'd say it's safe to write off that offer as a fringe party's desperate publicity stunt.
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People have no idea who tim moen is. People know who Maxime Bernier is, and I think he could rally a bunch of his supporters to the Libertarian side if he was leader.

I don't think he does it because he would be reduced to Elizabeth May status, leader of a party with one seat in parliament.
 
zeke said:
the free world splitting apart and going in its own directions does not make anyone stronger.
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If the Europeans get their ass in gear and actually integrate their defense capabilities to the point of self reliance and seamless interoperability then the argument could be made that the free world comes out of this significantly stronger, even if the USA is slightly weaker in comparison to a rising Europe. Much better than the status quo of the US must run everything because we have let our capabilities atrophy to the point of barely being able to run operations without US help in places right outside European borders.*

And when I think free world falling apart, I imagine Russia and China running amok, NATO fully collapsing, eastern Europe falling under Russian control, France Germany and Britain at odd with one another, the USA too consumed with domestic issues to even begin to contemplate global ones, the breakdown of the global intelligence network allowing terrorist to plot and plan attacks with more devastating effects and frequency, the global economy tanking again, the leafs winning the cup, ethnic tensions rising and separate groups resorting to violence as a result, independence movements starting up, stuff like that.

You version is pretty dire as well though. A more independent, self reliant, assertive Europe, scary.

*When the USA took a back seat in Libya and allowed the Europeans to run the show (Obama would never do that right?) the Europeans were pretty much out of bombs in two weeks, and they couldn't operate together without US assets in the region to coordinate and plan
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

Altair said:
People have no idea who tim moen is. People know who Maxime Bernier is, and I think he could rally a bunch of his supporters to the Libertarian side if he was leader.

I don't think he does it because he would be reduced to Elizabeth May status, leader of a party with one seat in parliament.
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If he even won his own seat. I mean, he lost in his own riding in the leadership race. If he ran as a Libertarian candidate, it might turn the riding into a 3 or 4 way race depending on who each party opted to run out.
 
Yes, russia and china are much, much stronger after the western powers go their seperate way.

And yes, russia and china are loving (and funding) north korea right now.

"independant and self-reliant" is just silly spin. that does not make them stronger, it makes them weaker. Russia is independant and self-reliant. North korea is indpendant and self-reliant. This doesn't make them strong.
 
zeke said:
Yes, russia and china are much, much stronger after the western powers go their seperate way.

And yes, russia and china are loving (and funding) north korea right now.

"independant and self-reliant" is just silly spin. that does not make them stronger, it makes them weaker. Russia is independant and self-reliant. North korea is indpendant and self-reliant. This doesn't make them strong.
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Sky is falling eh?

Maybe they will make a movie about this. The day France and Germany went their own way. Staring Brad Pitt as Macron and Scarlett Johansson as Merkel. Alec Baldwin as Trump, obviously.

Would make for a awesome political thriller.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

UWHabs said:
If he even won his own seat. I mean, he lost in his own riding in the leadership race. If he ran as a Libertarian candidate, it might turn the riding into a 3 or 4 way race depending on who each party opted to run out.
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He did do very well in certain parts of the country, but Quebec wasn't one of them. All those dairy farmers who would never vote CPC in a election signed up with the party in order to block him. Weird system, but whatever. His ideas do hold a certain appeal, and if he could get 49 percent of the party's support I think he could win a seat. Probably not in Quebec, but somewhere out west.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

LeafGm said:
Considering the Libertarian party of Canada ran a candidate in almost every riding in Canada in 2015 and came away with 0.21% of the popular vote, I'd say it's safe to write off that offer as a fringe party's desperate publicity stunt.
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Exactly
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-reasons-why-donald-trump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-2017-05-24

4 reasons trump will be re-elected in 2020. May or may not happen, but I don't think democrats should approach the election in 2020 thinking it will be a cakewalk.

But more importantly, this discusses why he wont be impeached. Hopefully people STFU about it.

2. Impeachment? Not going to happen (in his first term)

Many Democrats seem to be counting on Trump being removed from office in the near future, leaving their own candidate to run against Pence in 2020.

Let’s be clear: This is pure fantasy.

What about Comey? The Russians? Trump’s financial quagmires? Here’s the thing: Scandals tend to only have consequences when one’s opponents possess sufficient leverage to exploit them. This will not be the case for Trump in the foreseeable future.

Impeachment would require a majority in the House. Actually removing Trump from office would require at least a two-thirds vote in the Senate as well.

Nixon faced impeachment because, even after his landslide reelection, Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress, and some Republicans had turned on him as well. Clinton was impeached in 1998 by a Republican-controlled House, but was acquitted in the Senate because the GOP controlled *only* 55 seats.

Without massive Republican defections, Democrats will not be in a position to impeach Trump, let alone achieve the two-thirds majority required in the Senate to actually depose him. The 2018 elections will not change this reality:

As a function of the default effect, the particular seats which happen to be open this cycle, the DNC’s unpopularity (more on that soon), and Republican dominance of state governments — which has allowed them to draw key congressional districts in their favor — it will be extremely difficult for Democrats to gain even a simple majority in the Senate in 2018. A two-thirds majority is out of the question. As for taking the House? Even less likely.

Could Trump instead be declared unfit for duty in accordance with 25th amendment? No chance. First, this would require the vice president and a majority of his Cabinet to turn on him. Then, if Trump protested his ouster (which he would), it would take a two-thirds majority in both chambers of Congress to prevent him from regaining power. As previously discussed, this is wildly implausible.

In other words, we can count on Trump surviving his first term — and likely winning a second.
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There is zero chance he gets impeached. Plan on finding a likeable candidate in 2020, not the only person in America who challenges him for most disliked candidate.
 
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