WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou
I will get banned again soon, worry not.
Doesn't matter so long as the other members do.
OT: World Politics
- Thread starter zeke
- Start date
thehabhater
Some call me Tim
His couch is calling him.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
axlsalinger
Well-known member
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
lecoqsportif
Well-known member
All the Euros should come in wearing insane shit.
Cal Gal
Well-known member
Putin agrees that US, Europe could offer NATO-style security guarantees to Ukraine, Trump envoy says
Putin agrees that US, Europe could offer NATO-style security guarantees to Ukraine, Trump envoy says
Russian leader Vladimir Putin agreed at his summit with President Donald Trump that the United States and its European allies could offer Ukraine a security guarantee resembling NATO’s collective defe...
leafman101
Well-known member
Cal Gal
Well-known member
Some words from Manny, on set with Kristen/NBCUniversal.
www.yahoo.com
French President Emmanuel Macron responds to Trump's comments about a Ukraine deal from Putin
French President Emmanuel Macron responds to Trump's comments about a Ukraine deal from Putin
French President Emmanuel Macron spoke exclusively with Meet the Press moderator Kristen Welker on the talks for peace between Russia and Ukraine that took place at the White House. Macron shared his ...
Stinky
Well-known member
Cal Gal
Well-known member
She might not be able to read/comprehend.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Eh, I actually don't think this is nearly as much of a breakthrough as is being suggested. From the Russian side "we are willing to discuss an agreement that doesn't include the entire land area of the 4 oblasts we've claimed" isn't really a fucking compromise in any real sense. Nor is the "allowance" of security guarantees from 3rd parties. From the Ukrainian side, Zelensky doesn't have the constitutional power to cede territory in negotiation. All he has is the ability to take a binding offer to the Rada, and if there is a majority vote in favour of the deal, it goes to an entire process to alter the constitution. The best analogy I can think of is if the US and Mexico went to war, and one of Mexico's requirements were that no US citizen within 50km of the Mexican border could own (insert type of firearm here). The US would have to ammend it's constitution to agree to the treaty. Similarly, Ukrainian territorial integrity is in the Ukrainian constitution and just like a fairly exhaustive (and for the most part, politically untenable) process is required to ammend the US constitution, the Ukrainian process isn't really much easier to navigate. There are national referedums and constitituional courts, supermajority requirements in the RADA, etc.
imo, this is Zelensky playing the game and playing for time that he knows he has and Russia doesn't. He needs to sound open to discussion on this to maximize international support, pressure Russia to doing something it doesn't want to do (negotiate in any sort of real way) and then if Russia makes enough "concessions", he can say that all he can do is turn around and take this to the RADA/Constitutional Court/Public and let the process do it's thing. Even if they reached a tentative deal tomorrow that froze the new border at the current contact line, ratifying the deal could take 6-12 months on the Ukrainian end. Russia is broke now.
They're struggling like hell to meet their bond/debt commitments (they just pushed a 57B ruble payment to September quietly), are on the edge of a banking crisis (they've used VTB and Sberbank to do a combination of create fake bond demand in auction to drive up prices, in addition to using them as a buyer of last resort when they really need the cash, which has loaded both banks balance sheets with a ton of pure shit) and stopped paying for a bunch of expenses they've pushed on the oblasts, which is currently blowing holes in the oblast budgets, which has them on the verge of collapsing:
«Никогда не было дефицитов в таком объеме». В бюджетах российских регионов за полгода образовалась дыра на 400 миллиардов рублей - Русская служба The Moscow Times
Замедление экономики, резкое падение прибылей бизнеса, остановка заводов и сложности с экспортом угля, зерна и металлов — ударили по бюджетам российских регионов.За январь–июнь консолидированные бюджеты субъектов РФ были сведены с дефицитом в 397,8 млрд рублей, следует из данных Федерального...
www.moscowtimes.ru
Now, I could be wrong and this could be a real move forward towards a negotiated peace settlement. But everything I've read from the Ukrainian side of the ledger suggests that a constitutional ammendment just to give away land to Russia (the exact thing that part of the constitution was created to avoid) isn't politically or popularly feasible and it would fail the referendum if it even got out of the Rada. It would probably require actual territorial concessions (Zelensky has discussed "an exchange of territories"), as in, Russia ceding control of a decent sized portion of what they currently control in exchange for Ukraine legally acknowleding some of the territory as Russian. So for example, they take Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea but give back what they hold of Kherson and Zap, or similar. This is probably another place where the Russian tactic of terror against the civilian population falls on it's face. Everyone has lost something now, and Ukrainians aren't particularly willing to let them get away with it.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
Stinky
Well-known member
Interesting. And well put.Eh, I actually don't think this is nearly as much of a breakthrough as is being suggested. From the Russian side "we are willing to discuss an agreement that doesn't include the entire land area of the 4 oblasts we've claimed" isn't really a fucking compromise in any real sense. Nor is the "allowance" of security guarantees from 3rd parties. From the Ukrainian side, Zelensky doesn't have the constitutional power to cede territory in negotiation. All he has is the ability to take a binding offer to the Rada, and if there is a majority vote in favour of the deal, it goes to an entire process to alter the constitution. The best analogy I can think of is if the US and Mexico went to war, and one of Mexico's requirements were that no US citizen within 50km of the Mexican border could own (insert type of firearm here). The US would have to ammend it's constitution to agree to the treaty. Similarly, Ukrainian territorial integrity is in the Ukrainian constitution and just like a fairly exhaustive (and for the most part, politically untenable) process is required to ammend the US constitution, the Ukrainian process isn't really much easier to navigate. There are national referedums and constitituional courts, supermajority requirements in the RADA, etc.
imo, this is Zelensky playing the game and playing for time that he knows he has and Russia doesn't. He needs to sound open to discussion on this to maximize international support, pressure Russia to doing something it doesn't want to do (negotiate in any sort of real way) and then if Russia makes enough "concessions", he can say that all he can do is turn around and take this to the RADA/Constitutional Court/Public and let the process do it's thing. Even if they reached a tentative deal tomorrow that froze the new border at the current contact line, ratifying the deal could take 6-12 months on the Ukrainian end. Russia is broke now.
View attachment 28395
They're struggling like hell to meet their bond/debt commitments (they just pushed a 57B ruble payment to September quietly), are on the edge of a banking crisis (they've used VTB and Sberbank to do a combination of create fake bond demand in auction to drive up prices, in addition to using them as a buyer of last resort when they really need the cash, which has loaded both banks balance sheets with a ton of pure shit) and stopped paying for a bunch of expenses they've pushed on the oblasts, which is currently blowing holes in the oblast budgets, which has them on the verge of collapsing:
«Никогда не было дефицитов в таком объеме». В бюджетах российских регионов за полгода образовалась дыра на 400 миллиардов рублей - Русская служба The Moscow Times
Замедление экономики, резкое падение прибылей бизнеса, остановка заводов и сложности с экспортом угля, зерна и металлов — ударили по бюджетам российских регионов.За январь–июнь консолидированные бюджеты субъектов РФ были сведены с дефицитом в 397,8 млрд рублей, следует из данных Федерального...
Now, I could be wrong and this could be a real move forward towards a negotiated peace settlement. But everything I've read from the Ukrainian side of the ledger suggests that a constitutional ammendment just to give away land to Russia (the exact thing that part of the constitution was created to avoid) isn't politically or popularly feasible and it would fail the referendum if it even got out of the Rada. It would probably require actual territorial concessions (Zelensky has discussed "an exchange of territories"), as in, Russia ceding control of a decent sized portion of what they currently control in exchange for Ukraine legally acknowleding some of the territory as Russian. So for example, they take Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea but give back what they hold of Kherson and Zap, or similar. This is probably another place where the Russian tactic of terror against the civilian population falls on it's face. Everyone has lost something now, and Ukrainians aren't particularly willing to let them get away with it.
Also though?
I typically like the analysis that Whistler reads as it seems thorough and well researched. Just a different perspective. IF the end goal of the Fussians isn't to take back the entire block they controlled (note all caps on IF - it's a biggie) the non nato but Euro troops and a stable front line is all the Putin needs for his place in Russia to feel 'secure' this could be a breakthrough.
Though I'm not certain.
I do find the warfronts perspective moderately reliable and plausible.
At the same time, it may be a case of a throwing enough at the wall that sometime it may stick.
Cal Gal
Well-known member
Translation link available for the Russian article?Eh, I actually don't think this is nearly as much of a breakthrough as is being suggested. From the Russian side "we are willing to discuss an agreement that doesn't include the entire land area of the 4 oblasts we've claimed" isn't really a fucking compromise in any real sense. Nor is the "allowance" of security guarantees from 3rd parties. From the Ukrainian side, Zelensky doesn't have the constitutional power to cede territory in negotiation. All he has is the ability to take a binding offer to the Rada, and if there is a majority vote in favour of the deal, it goes to an entire process to alter the constitution. The best analogy I can think of is if the US and Mexico went to war, and one of Mexico's requirements were that no US citizen within 50km of the Mexican border could own (insert type of firearm here). The US would have to ammend it's constitution to agree to the treaty. Similarly, Ukrainian territorial integrity is in the Ukrainian constitution and just like a fairly exhaustive (and for the most part, politically untenable) process is required to ammend the US constitution, the Ukrainian process isn't really much easier to navigate. There are national referedums and constitituional courts, supermajority requirements in the RADA, etc.
imo, this is Zelensky playing the game and playing for time that he knows he has and Russia doesn't. He needs to sound open to discussion on this to maximize international support, pressure Russia to doing something it doesn't want to do (negotiate in any sort of real way) and then if Russia makes enough "concessions", he can say that all he can do is turn around and take this to the RADA/Constitutional Court/Public and let the process do it's thing. Even if they reached a tentative deal tomorrow that froze the new border at the current contact line, ratifying the deal could take 6-12 months on the Ukrainian end. Russia is broke now.
View attachment 28395
They're struggling like hell to meet their bond/debt commitments (they just pushed a 57B ruble payment to September quietly), are on the edge of a banking crisis (they've used VTB and Sberbank to do a combination of create fake bond demand in auction to drive up prices, in addition to using them as a buyer of last resort when they really need the cash, which has loaded both banks balance sheets with a ton of pure shit) and stopped paying for a bunch of expenses they've pushed on the oblasts, which is currently blowing holes in the oblast budgets, which has them on the verge of collapsing:
«Никогда не было дефицитов в таком объеме». В бюджетах российских регионов за полгода образовалась дыра на 400 миллиардов рублей - Русская служба The Moscow Times
Замедление экономики, резкое падение прибылей бизнеса, остановка заводов и сложности с экспортом угля, зерна и металлов — ударили по бюджетам российских регионов.За январь–июнь консолидированные бюджеты субъектов РФ были сведены с дефицитом в 397,8 млрд рублей, следует из данных Федерального...
Now, I could be wrong and this could be a real move forward towards a negotiated peace settlement. But everything I've read from the Ukrainian side of the ledger suggests that a constitutional ammendment just to give away land to Russia (the exact thing that part of the constitution was created to avoid) isn't politically or popularly feasible and it would fail the referendum if it even got out of the Rada. It would probably require actual territorial concessions (Zelensky has discussed "an exchange of territories"), as in, Russia ceding control of a decent sized portion of what they currently control in exchange for Ukraine legally acknowleding some of the territory as Russian. So for example, they take Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea but give back what they hold of Kherson and Zap, or similar. This is probably another place where the Russian tactic of terror against the civilian population falls on it's face. Everyone has lost something now, and Ukrainians aren't particularly willing to let them get away with it.
lecoqsportif
Well-known member
Putin can’t make a deal. He’s stuck.
The cost benefit, especially when compared to grandiose expectations, of this special military operation has been catastrophic.
The cost benefit, especially when compared to grandiose expectations, of this special military operation has been catastrophic.
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zeke
Well-known member
did get him the best PR Op for the soviet union since WWII tho.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Like I said though, legal recognition of the captured territory by Ukraine isn't a simple matter and this video, like a lot of analysis on the matter always seems to start from the unconscious bias of "Russian Stronk". The long and the short of it is that a peace which includes significant territorial concessions from Ukraine has always been a non starter from the Ukrainian side, and this big alleged breakthrough is Zelensky stating that any negotiations start at the current line of contact, not at the legal ukrainian boundaries of the oblasts Russia claims to have annexed, they don't end there. Even that statement doesn't show a willingness to concede the territory currently held by Russia, nor does it discuss the cost they would expect Russia to pay for any of it to be legally recognized by Ukraine.
Fwiw, I don't mind Whistler's channels for regurgitating facts but in analyzing fluid situations, it's way outside of their scope imo.