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Hey Nerds: Blockchain

Well that's what I'm wondering.


Cannabis stocks went nuts high, and now have come down low, but clearly it's a massive industry that's just getting started. I'm kinda thinking a cannabis etf is a cant-miss long term shot. Like getting in on tech stocks after the initial bubble burst.

I'm sorely tempted to make a big slow play right now.
 
zeke said:
Well that's what I'm wondering.


Cannabis stocks went nuts high, and now have come down low, but clearly it's a massive industry that's just getting started. I'm kinda thinking a cannabis etf is a cant-miss long term shot. Like getting in on tech stocks after the initial bubble burst.

I'm sorely tempted to make a big slow play right now.
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Working under that logic, I would wait for the shake out over the next 6-12 months before I used a broad based tool like a ETF. I would probably bet half of my net worth today that a big chunk (25% or more) of that list I posted won't exist in their current form by this time next year. Why get in with an instrument that was developed using 2016-2017 cannabis industry logic? Wait until the losers properly shake out (the more spectacular failures are in the process of dying right now, the less spectacular failures are waiting to be bought, or get railed by predatory financiers as we speak)

My only piece of guidance is to invest in whoever is developing real CPG brands. There will be space for niche organic/high quality flower growers, but the margins on CPG products are silly. For example, a gram of full spectrum THC oil is going for about 55 USD wholesale right now to the best of my ability to find out...which sounds like a lot. But micro dosed beverages and edibles are using 5-10mg per dose and in the case of beverages, are charging 6-8 USD retail per standard sized bottle. So you're getting anywhere between 100-200 bottles of product for 55 dollars in raw THC material. Depending on the strain you're growing, you can get 1 gram of said oil out of 4-5 grams of flower.

So would you rather be the farmer getting 15-20 dollars in profit on the 5 grams, the extractor spending 20 dollars on raw material and turning it into 55 dollars worth of oil, or the company taking 55 dollars worth of oil and making 200 bottles of product at 4 dollars a unit wholesale? I want to be the guys at the end of the value chain with the recognizable brand. If you can find someone who is vertically integrated to cover all of those bases, great. But if they're not, they better be at the end of that chain, not an anonymous industrial cog in the middle. That's who gets ****ing squeezed.
 
Make your own etf. Spread money evenly over your 10 best looking companies.

I’m a big ETF fan, but the cannabis ones are dog shit.
 
BTW, after successfully dipping my toe in HUYA, I picked up DOYU, another Chinese e-sports play. After Cannabis, E-Sports is my favourite high growth sector.

DOYU is super cheap for a crazy growth stock -- it's trading at just 2X forward sales. I guess it's being punished because it IPO'd during the middle of a China/US trade war?

Sometimes, the market makes no sense. ie. ROKU was trading in the $30 range in December.

If you're looking for an e-sports ETF, there's NERD. I might buy it since it has exposure to some foreign stocks that I can't access otherwise.
 
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CH1 said:
BTW, after successfully dipping my toe in HUYA, I picked up DOYU, another Chinese e-sports play. After Cannabis, E-Sports is my favourite high growth sector.

DOYU is super cheap for a crazy growth stock -- it's trading at just 2X forward sales. I guess it's being punished because it IPO'd during the middle of a China/US trade war?

Sometimes, the market makes no sense. ie. ROKU was trading in the $30 range in December.

If you're looking for an e-sports ETF, there's NERD. I might buy it since it has exposure to some foreign stocks that I can't access otherwise.
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I'm in the middle of two personal projects right now, but yeah e-sports is an industry I've been meaning to take a deep dive into.
 
Further proof that Trump is obsessed with the stock market. National securities be damned.

>>Trump Renews License Allowing US Companies To Do Business With Huawei.
 
CH1 said:
Further proof that Trump is obsessed with the stock market. National securities be damned.

>>Trump Renews License Allowing US Companies To Do Business With Huawei.
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He wants to play the role of the king to the people in the gilded class who wouldn't answer his calls 10 years ago. The narcissist streak in him craves their adoration. He was a joke in New York for decades, now he can hand down mana from heaven. He gets to soak up their attention and feel superior to them all at the same time. It's like crystal ****ing meth to him.
 
MindzEye said:
He wants to play the role of the king to the people in the gilded class who wouldn't answer his calls 10 years ago. The narcissist streak in him craves their adoration. He was a joke in New York for decades, now he can hand down mana from heaven. He gets to soak up their attention and feel superior to them all at the same time. It's like crystal ****ing meth to him.
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Trump yesterday:
Having dinner tonight with Tim Cook of Apple. They will be spending vast sums of money in the U.S. Great!
 
People who wouldn't have taken his phone call 10 years ago. Now they stroke his ego to get favours bestowed upon them. It's all he's ever wanted and he just had to fool the rubes and use the christians to get it.
 
MindzEye said:
People who wouldn't have taken his phone call 10 years ago. Now they stroke his ego to get favours bestowed upon them. It's all he's ever wanted and he just had to fool the rubes and use the christians to get it.
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Yeah. His ego has enjoyed a nice bounce. But god help us when he loses 2020. Manic depressive with the nuclear codes.
 
CH1 said:
Yeah. His ego has enjoyed a nice bounce. But god help us when he loses 2020. Manic depressive with the nuclear codes.
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I have marked off Jan 20 2021 as potentially one of the best days of my life. The entire world really needs this guy to lose, and be met with a mountain of lawsuits and criminal cases as soon as he leaves office.
 
MindzEye said:
I have marked off Jan 20 2021 as potentially one of the best days of my life. The entire world really needs this guy to lose, and be met with a mountain of lawsuits and criminal cases as soon as he leaves office.
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I expect a bunch of parades in several major cities.

Hypothetically speaking, would you postpone the Leafs winning the Cup for two years if that was the only way to defeat Trump?
 
CH1 said:
I expect a bunch of parades in several major cities.

Hypothetically speaking, would you postpone the Leafs winning the Cup for two years if that was the only way to defeat Trump?
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100%

Sports is a diversion, but at the end of the day only a diversion. A ****ing beloved diversion, but still. This shit is real life with real life consequences.
 
aww shucks

cfadb459bc052d1b5506901abaf2040e.gif
 
https://twitter.com/argo_escobar/status/1163054283295723522?s=09

This is just TRUL but the data is similar on all of these names, especially MSOs. TRUL is just a extreme case probably because the share unlock made them a great candidate to be shorted to shit since the selling pressure was always going to be immense. The typical lower volume in the summer also helps the cause for the shorters.

So this kind of explains the summer sell-off. Bull volume needs to come in to create that squeeze. Whether it's from a sector-wide trend reversal within the natural cycle or a bit time piece of news.. it's something that's going to need to happen or there will be more downside from here.


Fact is though, a lot of names who have done nothing wrong fundamentally are getting shorted to shit. In fact, the TRUL's and GTII's of the world just keeping pumping out bullish news that in my eyes makes them more valuable. So whenever theses shorts cover there's going to be one mammoth run. Problem is I have no ****ing idea where the bottom is.
 
I hadn’t realised the extreme extent of the damage until I saw this chart a few mins ago.

ECRAzGIXoAAFYa9
 
This is why I've sat on cash and dabbled in shorting this year almost solely other than my long TNY hold. It's been a ****ing blood bath. Trying to find a winner in this shitshow is hard. Good companies, bad companies, kind of doesn't matter. They're all bleeding market cap.
 
It definitely feels overdone. A lot of horseshit companies on that list but there are several others that have continued to execute and only look better than ever at this stage. Many names had over-exaggerated euphoria. I told a lot of people that shit is going to be corrected and won't be green forever. I exited my positions a little early and sure, I missed out on some profits. But the same logic applies the other way too. This shit won't bleed forever. The extreme euphoria will be back. But you better ****ing pick the right horses because many will fade to obscurity. Although some horse shit companies will get a pump too though in the midst of the euphoria, but you might as well feel comforted and at least try to pick the winners.
 
So I looked into esports thanks to ch1 and bought espt. In my first day I exited my principle with 65% gains. Playing with house money on them now. Kind of insane luck but that'll keep me above water for the time being. Jesus Christ. This mother fucking sector has some real hype right now.

One thing I've learned is to follow the hot stocks, or in this case, sector. At this stage you don't even need to pick the longterm winners. That shit means dick all . There are very few esports stocks out there right now, especially in canada... they'll all have their moments as long as the hype is there CH1 knows. As usual.
 
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