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Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

May I ask who Reilly played the most with this season in terms of forwards?
Was it the Matthews line or the Tavares line or any of the other two lines?
Just curious.
 
zeke said:
a very simple calculation that eliminates your "minor" usage discrepancy perfectly.
Click to expand...
Hardly. The minor discrepancy in usage is between the top four, as I said repeatedly. You've simply thrown bottom pairings into these calculations to generate your apparently bigger difference on your rel calculations.

I could not replicate how you calculated these relative numbers. The 'simple' average of the top four outside of Rielly is 52.7 (52.9 if you include Rielly). To validly compare this against the minor usage discrepancy, Rielly would have a +0.8 rel, not 2.1. So, among the top four, he moved 0.1 points relatively (probably less if you isolated top four for the original calculation).
 
i don't get it.

we can see the difference your so-called "minor" variable makes mathematically. it's not a complex calculation.

that's just simple math.

of course, you're making it seem as if I place far more faith in their numbers than I actually do, which is annoying. but even if you take their numbers at face value (which I don't), the mathematical impact of your "minor" variable is still clear.
 
I don't know how else to say it. Even using these numbers literally aka assuming that they are scaled correctly (which I don't do), the impact your so-called "minor" variable has is clear.
 
"Dangerous Fenwick %": Actual ---> Normalized

Holl 53.8% (+2.8rel) -----> 54.1% (+3.1rel)
Rielly 52.3% (+0.7rel) ----> 53.5% (+2.1rel)
Muzzin 52.2% (+1.3rel) --> 52.4% (+1.4rel)
Dermott 52.6% (+0.7rel) -> 52.9% (+0.7rel)
Ceci 51.1% (-1.2rel) ------> 51.6% (-0.6rel)
Barrie 51.0% (-1.3rel) ----> 50.6% (-1.9rel)
 
The wee 2.3% bump that Rielly gets here from zeke's 'simple' calculation is due entirely to his outlier performance on the weak comp. He outperformed his teammates by miles on soft comp this year -- which is no doubt related to zeke's sudden love of weak comp. Statistical noise.
 
Remembering, of course, that this was the easiest usage Mo has had in years. And Mo admittedly did not have a great year this year any way you split it.

PuckIQ only goes back to 14-15, so it misses Mo's first year.

14-15 (20): -14.4qoc, +3.4dfrel, +2.0xgfrel (+3.1 w/Polak, +0.2wo/Polak)
15-16 (21): +31.4qoc, -0.9dfrel, -2.9xgfrel (-6.6 w/Hunwick, -1.9wo/Hunwick)
16-17 (22): +24.0qoc, -1.5dfrel, -2.6xgrel (-2.8 w/Zaitsev, -1.4wo/Zaitsev)
17-18 (23): +22.5qoc, +0.5dfrel, -0.4xgfrel (-2.6 w/Hainsey, +5.3wo/Hainsey)
18-19 (24): +18.0qoc, -0.2dfrel, -0.5xgfrel (-1.8 w/Hainsey, +1.0wo/Hainsey)
19-20 (25): +11.6qoc, +0.7dfrel, -0.7xgfrel (-2.7w/Ceci, +0.7wo/Ceci(
 
BeLeafer said:
The wee 2.3% bump that Rielly gets here from zeke's 'simple' calculation is due entirely to his outlier performance on the weak comp. He outperformed his teammates by miles on soft comp this year -- which is no doubt related to zeke's sudden love of weak comp. Statistical noise.
Click to expand...

why do you keep saying that not ignoring all the ice time against easy comp is "sudden"?
 
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