Detach the name from the performance and just call him Player X.
In 2011, he was limited to 99 games, but when he played, he was an above-average performer relative to others at his position, hitting .276, with an .823 OPS.
In 2012, those numbers dipped slightly, as he continued to battle more injuries; Player X had a .783 OPS, while seeing a predictable regression in his defense.
Because of offseason surgery, Player X was limited to 44 games in 2013 — and he showed some pop. His OPS slid only slightly, to .771, although the questions about his ability to play regularly in the field continued to grow.
Player X is 38 years old, and as he deals with a condition that can be degenerative, he has missed 221 games the last three seasons. When he plays, he is still an above-average-to-average offensive player, compared to others at his position. In the small sample of games he played in the field in 2013, one defensive metric has him as average.
In short, the pure performance evaluation would be: Player X can be a productive player, although there are significant questions about whether he will be healthy enough to be counted on.
There is more to the equation than baseball production, however. So much more.
Player X is Alex Rodriguez, and his lawsuit count for 2013 may be in the neighborhood of his home run total for the year (7), after all the papers are filed before the start of 2014.
One of the defendants is the Yankees' team doctor. By season's end, Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman acknowledged he was concerned about having conversations with Rodriguez because he fretted that his words would become fodder in a legal case. If A-Rod returns to the Yankees, a lot of folks in the organization will be walking carefully around him, out of fear that something they do or say might lead to them to taking an oath in a courtroom.
The Yankees owe Rodriguez $86 million over the next four seasons, a financial commitment that may be lightened if an arbitrator rules against him and sustains some sort of suspension, and if that ruling stands up to any inevitable legal challenge that Rodriguez may mount.
I don't think it matters. I'm guessing — and that's all it is, a guess — that Rodriguez has played his last game for the Yankees.
If Rodriguez is ordered to serve the full 211 games in his suspension, I think they'll cut him, upon completion of his sentence. If his suspension is reduced, I think they'll cut him. If he wins his case outright, I think they'll cut him.
Because Rodriguez may have reached the tipping point in his career in which his potential production for the Yankees is outweighed by the potential downside for the organization.
Let's say, for argument sake, that Rodriguez won his arbitration case and was ready to play at the start of spring training. For 38-year-old Player X, a good season in the summer in which he turned 39 might be 120-125 games, 15 to 20 homers and an OPS in the range of .750-.770.
A full season for Alex Rodriguez would also promise to include the spectacle of a press conference at the outset of spring training, just as the Yankees are focusing on the 2014 season after failing to make the playoffs in 2013. We in the media would chase him around for updates on his play and on the progress of lawsuits against others in the organization and Major League Baseball.
Whether the Steinbrenner family wants it or not, A-Rod will be the face of the Yankees whenever he plays for them again. Some teammates were privately fed up by the daily circus that swirled around A-Rod in the last two months of last season, as they were trying to hang in the pennant race.
My guess is that the Yankees will decide: Uncle.
My guess is that after the arbitrator makes his ruling, they will make peace with the idea of writing him a big check, paying him off and moving on without him.
Jhonny Peralta and many others have shown that folks in baseball will forgive a PED history if there is the promise of exceptional production. Heck, A-Rod showed that in 2009, after his admission that he used PEDs early in his career. His teammates stood for his press conference in Tampa, in support of him, and after that they went back to business, because Rodriguez was still an elite player. If he had been a fringe player, he would have been cut long ago.
But Player X — A-Rod — can no longer be counted on for star-level production, in the latter half of the 10-year contract he signed after the 2007 season. And unquestionably, his presence will have great potential for distraction.
George Steinbrenner seemed to subscribe to the theory that there is no such thing as negative publicity, particularly in his first 15 years of ownership of the Yankees. But I wonder if even Steinbrenner — who was suspended from baseball himself -- might have grown weary of the A-Rod headlines, and severed the relationship by now.
Winning mattered most to Steinbrenner and as it is with a lot of older players, it's no longer a sure thing that Player X — Alex Rodriguez — is more of a help than a hindrance.
