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OT: American Politics

zeke said:
nah, only an outsider will beat trump. one that has gut level charisma and can speak our language.

but one who can tell people it's good for the government to provide healthcare. one who notneven the breitbart machine can undermine gut level trust in.
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Nah. Trump got lucky last time. Perfect storm, including an opposing candidate that not many people liked.

I'm not even sure Trump will run again.
 
CH1 said:
Nate Silver makes the point that the amount of trumpanzees is less than you think


1. These "Trump's base still loves Trump!" stories have lots of problems, not least that they misunderstand how he won the election.

2. Trump's base is ~20-25% of the country. Might be the plurality in a GOP primary. But nowhere near enough to win a general election.

3. Trump got 46% and won in November because most mainstream Republicans, and many independents who didn't like Clinton, also came along.

4. Trump is alienating those marginal Trump voters at rapid rates. They liked Gorsuch, Syria. They don't like AHCA, Comey, all the tweeting.

5. Paris was in between. 60% of Trump voters strongly approved his call (v. 81% of Clinton voters strongly opposed).

6. Overall, Trump's strong approval ratings are sharply down--from 30% in February to 21 or 22% today.

7. Good reporting needs to be able to distinguish between Trump's Bannonist base (20-25% of the country) and all Trump voters (46%).
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It was independent voters in 4 states that won the election for the caudillo. They seem to have buyers' remorse right now, but there will be an attempt to woo sooner rather than later, bigly.

But I'm not sure if the junta has the policies to do that (e.g. health care goat ****), so they'll likely double down on the nationalist-evangelical-resentment-immigrant-hater trope. The tweets will continue to be bonkers.
 
CH1 said:
Nah. Trump got lucky last time. Perfect storm, including an opposing candidate that not many people liked.

I'm not even sure Trump will run again.
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Yup. If Trump could declare bankruptcy (his usual exit strategy) on this presidency, he would.
 
nah. it wasn't luck. he was the right type (despite his flaws) at the right time.

and never underestimate trump's ego.

and never underestimate the gop's evil.
 
Little late, but awesome still the same.
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lecoqsportif said:
They will hate whoever the caudillo and the Murdoch information service tells them to hate.
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Yeah. Trump's base (as Nate Silver points out) is about 25%. It hated Clinton, Obama and they will hate the Rock if they have to. The core base is not enough to win.
 
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trump now claiming that the move against qatar was a known and planned response to his request to stop those that fund terrorists.

(p.s. qatar hosts multiple american army bases)
 
zeke said:
roflmao even the ****ing $100B arms deal with Saudi was a lie.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/mark...llion-arms-deal-to-saudi-arabia-is-fake-news/

hia fraud has no limits.
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So he went over there and jerked off dictators for nothing? It was tragic that he would go over there and act like that for a 100B contract, but at least that would be in character for a "businessman" President. Even if I disagreed with the product, at least there was some sort of coherent plan with a coherent goal. This though, just ****ing nothing. Pandering to the Saudi's for no reason at all.

If there is a binding narrative of the Trump admin so far it's that he has boundless love for the dictators of the world but is has zero respect for democratically elected leaders.
 
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I don’t even think it's pandering. Those are his people. That's what he respects - moneyed dictators. He's just more comfortable with them. They think like he thinks.

He has zero respect for democratically elected politicians - in his mind they're weak losers that depend on others for their power. He believes their principles and morals are either lies or liabilities. They make him uncomfortable and insecure.
 
zeke said:
I don’t even think it's pandering. Those are his people. That's what he respects - moneyed dictators. He's just more comfortable with them. They think like he thinks.

He has zero respect for democratically elected politicians - in his mind they're weak losers that depend on others for their power. He believes their principles and morals are either lies or liabilities. They make him uncomfortable and insecure.
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As cranky as some of us are about this, I think that historians will be even less forgiving. Less forgiving of the him, the electorate, and the state of the system that allowed for it to become possible. The United States elected a con man with moral compass of an African strong man
 
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