OT: Post Corona - What Will Change?

[Altair]

But I think you described just about every job out there. If you have a boss, expect to get mistreated 8 out of 10 times.

A couple of years and bosses will learn just how mobile their employees are.

If certain bosses were suffering retention issues, they would be replaced, quickly.

 

[MindzEye]

24k doesn’t buy you much of a life that’s why.

Pretty sure you can side hustle 8K a year to make up the difference in way less than 40 hours a week.

 

[MindzEye]

But I think you described just about every job out there. If you have a boss, expect to get mistreated 8 out of 10 times.

Just because it is that way, doesn't mean it should be that way. It's a piss poor motivation tactic and is largely born out of your boss not being the guy best suited for the job, but being the guy who was willing to borderline psychopathically give up everything else in his life in pursuit of elevating his status.

Almost the entire office place culture we've been handed from our forebearers is broken.

 

[Altair]

There's a lot of different models but the one that seems to be the simplest and work the best is that a dollar figure just gets sent out and that's it. Once you hit a certain threshold on your taxes, that dollar amount tiers downward until somewhere around 75K a year it stops.

The main feature is to ensure that no one in the country is in severe poverty. The secondary feature is that the "working poor" are elevated to being something closer to the lower end of middle income. This would take someone earning 15 dollars an hour (31,200 a year...minus taxes) and push them to 55K (assuming 2K a month as the UBI, which in fairness is a little higher than most numbers I've seen but is close enough that we can used it in a discussion like this).

Which sounds like a lot of money but inflation is a motherfucker. 55K in 2020 dollars is 38K in 2000 dollars. It's really not much more than an okay apartment, bills all paid, no debt a bit of savings and a vacation fund if you're living in a city like Toronto.

Its also going to top off the middle class quite a bit.

Someone making 75k(your cutoff) will have a spouse making 24k sitting at home.

Cut off spouses and there are suddenly a lot of people who don't see marriage as a necessity.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Just because it is that way, doesn't mean it should be that way. It's a piss poor motivation tactic and is largely born out of your boss not being the guy best suited for the job, but being the guy who was willing to borderline psychopathically give up everything else in his life in pursuit of elevating his status.

Almost the entire office place culture we've been handed from our forebearers is broken.

There‘a nothing you can do at the government level that will produce better bosses. If that was possible, the market itself would’ve made that happen. Why would a shitty manager be allowed to progress in a company? Shouldn’t happen, but it does and always will. I don’t think anything is broken. It’s the nature of hierarchy and the human condition.

 

[GEEMAN]

I honestly don't think that's how it would work. Raising peoples standard of living that really need it should be the goal of any progressive society really. Why do we let rich people and corporations game the tax system but are not okay with someone at the poverty level getting a little something to raise them up and be less miserable?

The system is rigged by the rich for the rich , nothing will change

Take from the many to give to the few will always rule

Why bail out the corrupt corporations or bankers ......because the powers in charge are their buddies

Plus they get ousted with a hundred mil in severance while creating the mess like 2009 as an example

 

[worm]

Once a vaccine is out in full, crowds, shaking hands, orgies, etc.. are all back to normal.

The true lasting changes will be increased working from home/teleconference, for sure. I also think it's a given that in 5-10 years we'll have a UBI in place, since really, we're almost to the point of having that right now with this and it really is the "safest" way to protect the people if this happens again.

this

 

[worm]

yeah, but probably won’t make up for lost revenue. It’s not like I’m going to get multiple haircuts on the same day when it’s all over.

I imagine some spots who were barely turning a profit, will not come back.

same thing with restos, I’m not going to be 2x as hungry. Curious to see if all my favourite spots will re-appear. It’s such a low margin biz, any place that over leveraged might be done for.

chain restos are going to be all that is left

 

[CH1]

chain restos are going to be all that is left

that's all you have in Alberta, anyway. So no big loss.

 

[worm]

Aka every restaurant ever. Very few industries are fucked like the restaurant industry is. Very curious to see how that shakes up.

i do not know much about the business obviously but why?

outside of the food you had that might spoil (chances are you were able to use a bunch of that for skip the dishes), and rent (which you can defer?) what expenses to they have right now? Trudeau is paying those people that benefit

what am i missing compared to other businesses?

 

[worm]

sure, but my point is that the basic flu shot is only about 35% effective in any given year

got a source on that?

 

[CH1]

got a source on that?

varies year to year -- 45% this year

How effective is influenza vaccine 2019?
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) latest Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report features interim estimates of effectiveness for the 2019-20 seasonal influenza vaccine. According to the report, the overall estimated effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines is currently 45%

 

[worm]

There would be no system to work...have a social insurance number and file your taxes from the previous year? Here's your benefit based on your income level. That's one of the beauties of it all. I mean sure you can be a high earner and commit tax fraud to try to get your benefit, but I hardly think the juice is worth the squeeze there. On the bottom end there's no "system" to game. If you're poor, here's money. I'm sure there would be edges to be nibbled around (not reporting a dead loved one, for example), but it would hardly be a key issue.

To give you an idea how pervasive (or not) that problem is...in 2017 there were about 1000 Ontario works fraud cases that were investigated and the recipient was found to be guilty and had their benefits removed.

Even that doesn't tell the story though. The most common reasons for the investigations being opened:

- Having more than 2500 in your bank account (which makes you ineligible)
- Having a job and not reporting it (your work income is on a 2:1 ratio from your benefits...if we're talking about an incentive to not bother working and all)


Seriously...that's it. Benefits "fraud" in the way we think of fraud barely exists. Benefits fraud is almost entirely some poor bastard working a minimum wage job and trying to go as long as possible without telling the government.

why do we not all just quit our jobs if we get UBI is the new why dont we all work at mcdonalds if they get a living wage

 

[GEEMAN]

That's a pretty huge aspect of it. That's only blunted by the fact that so much of that will be vacuumed up by Walmart, Amazon, etc. If UBI was coupled with a real societal change towards buy local whenever possible, it would be game changing.

But yeah, I'd much much rather give 1000 people 24K a year each than give a "job creator a 24 million dollar tax break.

All great points but the execution is going to be one daunting task

How do we revamp our social system here without more corruption and greed

There's a lot of different models but the one that seems to be the simplest and work the best is that a dollar figure just gets sent out and that's it. Once you hit a certain threshold on your taxes, that dollar amount tiers downward until somewhere around 75K a year it stops.

The main feature is to ensure that no one in the country is in severe poverty. The secondary feature is that the "working poor" are elevated to being something closer to the lower end of middle income. This would take someone earning 15 dollars an hour (31,200 a year...minus taxes) and push them to 55K (assuming 2K a month as the UBI, which in fairness is a little higher than most numbers I've seen but is close enough that we can used it in a discussion like this).

Which sounds like a lot of money but inflation is a motherfucker. 55K in 2020 dollars is 38K in 2000 dollars. It's really not much more than an okay apartment, bills all paid, no debt a bit of savings and a vacation fund if you're living in a city like Toronto.

A big issue is how do insurance plans and other services get rolled into this

Is your dentist going to charge you $15k for braces if your getting an extra income through UBI

Do prescription costs go higher as well and much higher taxes that the middle class wont afford

The 1% wont be affected , they have other means of deferring taxes or stashing money in overseas tax havens

 

[Aberdeen]

Managing the inflationary pressure which could come from a ubi would be interesting, but not impossible.

 

[worm]

varies year to year -- 45% this year

How effective is influenza vaccine 2019?
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) latest Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report features interim estimates of effectiveness for the 2019-20 seasonal influenza vaccine. According to the report, the overall estimated effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines is currently 45%

i am curious what effectiveness means

does it mean that a person that gets it does not get the flu at all or does not get the specific flus that vaccine was for?

also what happens if everybody gets the flu shot?


keeping with this thread in what changes i think we see less and less flu and the morality rate goes down
- social distance, proper hand washing, people staying home when sick, etc
- more people get the flu shot (perhaps with the covid vaccine)
- a bunch of people that would die from the flu already died from covid

 

[MindzEye]

All great points but the execution is going to be one daunting task

How do we revamp our social system here without more corruption and greed

Where is the corruption and greed in current social welfare systems? Why would a simplified system increase the possibility for corruption and greed rather than decrease it? Complicated systems are mothers milk for grifters. It's the intricate weaknesses of a system that get exploited.

A big issue is how do insurance plans and other services get rolled into this

Why would they?

Is your dentist going to charge you $15k for braces if your getting an extra income through UBI

I'm not quite sure I understand why you think this is remotely possible unless you think that the demand for braces is going to triple or quadruple (which wouldn't increase prices in that way, it would increase waiting times at existing or slightly elevated prices)

Do prescription costs go higher as well and much higher taxes that the middle class wont afford

Again, I have no idea what the reason for any of these changes would be. Why would prescription drugs that are mostly manufactured elsewhere, see a significant increase in price specifically in Canada? This isn't inventing a massive pool of new money to chase the same amount of goods, this is redistributing existing money/societal expenses to different places.

 

[MindzEye]

why do we not all just quit our jobs if we get UBI is the new why dont we all work at mcdonalds if they get a living wage

Yep, and the follow up conversation is always...well, would you? No of course not, because you're different and a hard worker...not like them

For a problem so familiar and endemic to society, most people really struggle with understanding the causes and effects of poverty.

 

[GEEMAN]

Where is the corruption and greed in current social welfare systems? Why would a simplified system increase the possibility for corruption and greed rather than decrease it? Complicated systems are mothers milk for grifters. It's the intricate weaknesses of a system that get exploited.





Why would they?



I'm not quite sure I understand why you think this is remotely possible unless you think that the demand for braces is going to triple or quadruple (which wouldn't increase prices in that way, it would increase waiting times at existing or slightly elevated prices)



Again, I have no idea what the reason for any of these changes would be. Why would prescription drugs that are mostly manufactured elsewhere, see a significant increase in price specifically in Canada? This isn't inventing a massive pool of new money to chase the same amount of goods, this is redistributing existing money/societal expenses to different places.

All I am saying is your giving a second income to everyone to some extent

It opens the door for cost increases and how the government will need to be on top of things and they roll out other services or decrease them

 

[MindzEye]

All I am saying is your giving a second income to everyone to some extent

It opens the door for cost increases

Eh, the economics kind of don't work that way, at least not nearly to the level of severity that you suggest. Will there be some cost inflation on desired goods of limited or fixed supply? Yeah absolutely. Housing costs would continue to increase (though the possibility of lower urbanization might off set a fair chunk of that, hard to tell how society would react...how many 30 somethings living in the city would prefer smaller town life outside the city if it was economically viable for them and didn't include commuting to the city every day?) But for goods that are manufactured/produced elsewhere? Any increase in consumer buying power in Canada is a drop in the bucket to the international marketplace...some factory in Thailand will add another shift, another in malaysia or mexico will build out another 50,000 sq ft. Even if they didn't, the cost of the widget would go up a fraction of a cent.

and how the government will need to be on top of things and they roll out other services or decrease them

Yeah, that's the main issue imo. What is the new system going to be and how to transition from old to new.