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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

Are the Jays fucked again with next years draft due to overspending

Would be nice not to fall down another 10 + spots for being crap this year

The good is if they sell off, they can potentially try to get under some of those tax thresholds. It might still be worth it to retain money to get better prospects back, although at the very least, anything you save on the payroll at least you don't pay the tax on. I think draft penalties start at 40m over the CBT threshold, and the Jays are like 77M over, so I think it would be very unlikely they could save enough at this point to get under that.

But the team does have a lot of money coming off the books after this year, and a lot of that is pretty dead money too. Springer-Gausman-Bieber is 60m, Straw is another 5-6m you can save if you decline. If you don't trade Varsho, especially after his bad year, he's probably only in line for a 5M raise in arbitration. Clement will probably need another 5M as well, and Sanchez probably only needs a 3m raise or so.

Obviously the CBA negotiations might wipe out a lot of next year. What they do will depend a lot on what the rules end up being. Realistically they still need to bring in a starter to replace Gausman, even if Ponce is healthy. But the rest of the lineup they could probably run out as is, and hope for natural positive regression for Vlad, Barger, Kirk, etc..
 
IMO the obvious core going into next year

Vlad
Kirk
Okamoto
Barger
Cease
Yesavage
Varland ( though if someone offered a Mason Miller package, i'd thank him and take it)
Valenzuela ( though i'd sooner move him than any of our kids in the the top 6-7 of our farm, if someone is insisting)

UFA to move

Gausman
Springer
Straw

Listen, but consider keeping

Hoffman
Varsho ( pending FA, but CF is derth, better damn sure know how you are replacing him, could bounce back)

Spare Parts you could do either or with

Sanchez
Davis
Lukes
Rest of the Pen

Glut of Fringey AAA prospects you might want to sell on

Pinango
Keys
Schrek
Clase

Probably Bad players you need to consider eating it on and replacing

Santander
Gimenez
 
I forgot about Bieber.

He's kinda in the Varsho camp for me tbh, if you get real value move him, but if he strings together another good start, maybe hang onto him and offer him the QO as well.
 
Tucker always struck me as iffy. That one red hot half-season he had in 2024 really skewed his recent numbers. And he always seemed to get way too much defensive value given his team never ever thought he was CF-worthy even in a pinch, despite his otherworldly corner OF stats.

Stricltly a corner OF with a good but never great bat.
 
wut?

The good prospects that fall in drafts are taken by the teams with larger bonus pools that can strategically offer overslot value to a falling prospect

And the best guys still mostly go in the first round
My point is plenty of Schlittler and Muncy types in later rounds who develop into very good players
 
Scherzer finishes on 56 pitches, throwing 5.0ip, 0 hits, 0 walks, 7 ks. 4 go / 1 fo.

can't do much better than that.

Gardner has already ruined the perfecto with a walk and hbp in the 6th, but the no-hitter is still on.
 
IMO the obvious core going into next year

Vlad
Kirk
Okamoto
Barger
Cease
Yesavage
Varland ( though if someone offered a Mason Miller package, i'd thank him and take it)
Valenzuela ( though i'd sooner move him than any of our kids in the the top 6-7 of our farm, if someone is insisting)

UFA to move

Gausman
Springer
Straw

Listen, but consider keeping

Hoffman
Varsho ( pending FA, but CF is derth, better damn sure know how you are replacing him, could bounce back)

Spare Parts you could do either or with

Sanchez
Davis
Lukes
Rest of the Pen

Glut of Fringey AAA prospects you might want to sell on

Pinango
Keys
Schrek
Clase

Probably Bad players you need to consider eating it on and replacing

Santander
Gimenez
Clement?
 
Jays lose again. All the same problems repeat. Sell time.

So tragic that we didn't win it with all these guys last year. Would make the sting of trading them off now much less.
 
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