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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

zeke said:
wRC+ vRHP / vLHP

1. DH Springer 159 / Springer 117
2. 1B Guerrero 134 / Guerrero 169
3. SS Bichette 121 / Bichette 113
4. C Alejandro 120 / Alejandro 111
5. CF Varsho 132 / Varsho -59
6. 3B Barger 137 / Clement 156
7. RF Loperfido 190 / Loperfido 135
8. 2B Gimenez 100 / Schneider 139
9. LF Lukes 112 / Straw 97

B. UT Clement 60 / Barger 64
B. OF Straw 59 / Lukes 72
B. IF Schneider 89 / Gimenez 22
B. C Heineman 124 / Heineman 201

X. UT France 90 / France 89
X. OF Santander 68 / Santander 46
X. OF Clase 77 / Clase 44
X. IF Jimenez -100 / Jimenez 70
X. C Sanchez 7 / Sanchez 253


Would be sweet if Loperfido could stay hot. Not as hot as he has been but good enough to be an above average bat. Im pretty skeptical but if he's truly lowered his swing and miss rate, then his natural power and athleticism could really shine through.
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Jays need cheap everyday players , can’t keep spending big bucks in UFA

Barger , Loperfido , etc and hopefully some pitchers can do it
 
MindzEye said:
Counterpoint: Run Differential is important, always has been important, and outside of one crazy stretch where everything went right, this team hasn't been very good. The Yankees and Red Sox have played under their run diff, and we've played over ours. The hope is that they don't have enough time for that to catch up to everyone involved. Or...we catch another weird mini heater or something to put it away.

The glimmer of hope fwiw that we are good enough is that the pitching has been bad despite elite D playing behind it, and with Max rounding into form, Bieber joining the rotation in the next 2 weeks or so, and the upgrades to the pen...maybe that has gone from bad to average plus. So the floor is probably higher down the stretch with Gausman-Bieber-Berrios-Bassist-Max/Lauer and Dominguez-Varland getting later game innings that were going to Green, Fluharty, busted Yimi, Yariel, etc.

Fwiw, Fangraph's projections have the Jays holding on and winning 91 games, but only going 26-24 down the stretch to do it.
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Run differential can be skewed , teams can use 10-15 games where they beat the shit out of their opponents and that might be the biggest chunk of your stat .
 
MindzEye said:
Counterpoint: Run Differential is important, always has been important, and outside of one crazy stretch where everything went right, this team hasn't been very good.
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Not true tbh.

The Jays had a hilarious 9gm stretch in late April where they went 1-8 with a -43 run diff, and have been steadily very positive in run diff otherwise.
 
zeke said:
Not true tbh.

The Jays had a hilarious 9gm stretch in late April where they went 1-8 with a -43 run diff, and have been steadily very positive in run diff otherwise.
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We can slice and dice the season multiple ways of course, but the most obvious is the 25-27 stretch to start the season, the 29-11 heater, and 10-10 since the end of the heater.

I mean, even if we completely nuked those games from orbit and pretended that they never happened, we would have the 9th best run differential in baseball instead of 15th.
 
GEEMAN said:
Run differential can be skewed , teams can use 10-15 games where they beat the shit out of their opponents and that might be the biggest chunk of your stat .
Click to expand...

Over 162 it does a pretty good job of predicting true talent level. Any 7-10% sample of a season can produce weird data on the upside and downside.
 
zeke said:
No it's not.
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Is this where you pretend that despite the mediocre run differential this is a ~97 win team aside from a single 1-9 stretch (that is a totally normal stretch that teams go through all the time, the Yankees have gone 1-7 two times this season)
 
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MindzEye said:
Is this where you pretend that despite the mediocre run differential this is a ~97 win aside from a single 1-9 stretch (that is a totally normal stretch that teams go through all the time, the Yankees have gone 1-7 two times this season)
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You're the one that tried to parse stretches. I just pointed the more obvious stretch to parse.

And save the condescension. Your jays takes don't warrant it.
 
Fangraphs Projected ERA


SP RH Bieber 3.74
SP RH Gausman 3.92
SP RH Scherzer 3.92
SP RH Bassitt 4.05
SP RH Berrios 4.33

RP RH Hoffman 3.21
RP LH Little 3.37
RP RH Varland 3.38
RP RH Dominguez 3.52
RP RH Garcia 3.70
RP RH Fisher 4.00
RP RH Rodriguez 4.01
RP LH Lauer 4.14
RP LH Fluharty 4.14

RP RH Yesavage 3.45


wRC+

1B Guerrero 145
SS Bichette 117
DH Springer 116
C Alejandro 116
RF Santander 111
3B Barger 109
LF Lukes 107
CF Varsho 99
2B Gimenez 98

UT Schneider 104
OF Loperfido 94
IF Clement 103
C Heineman 92

UT France 102
OF Straw 74
IF Jimenez 94
C Sanchez 71
 
Projected wRC+

1B Guerrero 145 --- RF Judge 178
SS Bichette 118 --- LF Bellinger 118
DH Springer 116 --- DH Rice 117
C Alejandro 116 --- 2B Chisholm 115
3B Barger 108 ---.CF Grisham 112
RF Lukes 107 --- 1B Goldschmidt 111
LF Schneider 104 --- C Wells 101
CF Varsho 99 --- SS Volpe 98
2B Gimenez 97 --- 3B McMahon 93

UT France 102 --- UT Stanton 113
OF Santander 111 --- OF Dominguez 106
IF Clement 94 --- IF Rosario 93
C Heineman 91 --- C Escarra 90

UT Loperfido 94 --- UT Vivas 85
OF Straw 74 --- OF Slater 95
IF Jimenez 94 --- IF Caballero 82
C Sanchez 71 ---



ERA

RH Bieber 3.73 --- LH Fried 3.31
RH Gausman 3.91 --- LH Rodon 4.04
RH Scherzer 3.92 --- RH Warren 4.14
RH Bassitt 4.03 --- RH Gil 4.25
LH Lauer 4.14 --- RH Brubaker 4.55
RH Berrios 4.32 --- RH Schittler 4.55
RH Manoah 4.44 --- RH Yarbrough 4.81

RH Hoffman 3.21 --- RH Bednar 2.98
LH Little 3.36 --- RH Williams 3.01
RH Varland 3.38 --- RH Doval 3.17
RH Yesavage 3.43 --- RH Cruz 3.17
RH Dominguez 3.54 --- RH Bird 3.50
RH Garcia 3.69 --- RH Leiter 3.66
RH Fisher 3.99 --- RH Hamilton 3.82
RH Rodriguez 4.00 --- RH Loaisaiga 3.89
RH Pina 4.01 --- RH DeLosSantos 4.04
RH Nance 4.02 --- RH Effros 4.10
RH Sandlin 4.12 --- RH Weaver 4.12
LH Fluharty 4.13 --- LH Headrick 4.15
LH Bruihl 4.27 --- LH Hill 4.32​
 
Jays expected W-L is 58-55 which is 4th best in the AL East and 8th in the AL. Good news is they built up enough of a cushion with that hot streak and there’s so much parity this year that .500 ball the rest of the way gets them to 89-90 wins and probably a playoff spot.

They’re not a lock though, which is pretty sad with the #2 payroll in the AL, almost $100M more than #8, Detroit.

I said after they swept Detroit that the calibre of the team would be obvious based on how they bounced back from their next slump. They’re 2-6 since then. Now’s the time, and luckily they’re starting with 3 against by far the worst team in baseball. Colorado is on pace for 118 losses, which would be the 4th worst season of all time.
 
Plausible Best Lineup...


...using this year's stats only:

1. DH Springer 408pa, .383obp, 148wrc+, 4.0war650
2. 1B Guerrero 491pa, .395obp, 141wrc+, 4.0war650
3. SS Bichette 497pa, .331obp, 120wrc+, 3.5war650
4. 3B Barger 337pa, .313obp, 121wrc+, 3.9war650
5. C Alejandro 351pa, .359obp, 115wrc+, 6.1war650
6. CF Varsho 107pa, .234obp, 93wrc+, 3.0war650
7. LF Schneider 124pa, .363obp, 120wrc+, 1.7war650
8. RF Lukes 279pa, .337obp, 106wrc+, 2.3war650
9. 2B Clement 415pa, .317obp, 93wrc+, 3.3war650

B. UT Loperfido 70pa, .420obp, 173wrc+, 6.5war650
B. OF Straw 224pa, .298obp, 78wrc+, 2.9war650
B. IF Gimenez 238pa, .300obp, 78wrc+, 2.7war650
B. C Heineman 123pa, .400obp, 154wrc+, 11.6war650

X. UT France 395pa, .316obp, 90wrc+, 1.0war650
X. OF Clase 112pa, .288obp, 68wrc+, -1.7war650
X. IF Jimenez 32pa, .129obp, -20wrc+, -6.1war650
X. C Sanchez 21pa, .238obp, 54wrc+, 3.1war650

X. OF Santander 209pa, .273obp, 63wrc+, -2.8war650
X. IF Stefanic 25pa, .280obp, 39wrc+, 0.0war650



....using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:

1. DH Springer 594pa, .352obp, 126wrc+, 2.7war650
2. 1B Guerrero 708pa, .401obp, 151wrc+, 4.5war650
3. SS Bichette 502pa, .339obp, 120wrc+, 3.5war650
4. C Alejandro 524pa, .351obp, 114wrc+, 6.1war650
5. CF Varsho 239pa, .289obp, 109wrc+, 4.6war650
6. 3B Barger 479pa, .297obp, 107wrc+, 2.6war650
7. LF Lukes 370pa, .345obp, 112wrc+, 3.0war650
8. RF Loperfido 204pa, .296obp, 96wrc+, 1.3war650
9. 2B Clement 614pa, .304obp, 91wrc+, 3.1war650

B. UT France 586pa, .311obp, 89wrc+, 0.1war650
B. OF Straw 228pa, .297obp, 78wrc+, 2.9war650
B. IF Gimenez 449pa, .300obp, 82wrc+, 3.0war650
B. C Heineman 136pa, .391obp, 143wrc+, 11.0war650

X. UT Santander 424pa, .288obp, 86wrc+, -0.5war650
X. OF Clase 135pa, .313obp, 88wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Jimenez 169pa, .310obp, 96wrc+, 1.5war650
X. C Bethancourt 47pa, .277obp, 102wrc+, 5.5war650

X. UT Schneider 235pa, .285obp, 75wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Schreck
X. IF Stefanic 107pa, .290obp, 55wrc+, -1.8war650
X. C Sanchez 66pa, .204obp, 22wrc+, 0.0war650



....using Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections:

1. DH Springer 176pa, .338obp, 116wrc+, 2.6war650
2. 1B Guerrero 207pa, .381obp, 145wrc+, 4.1war650
3. SS Bichette 199pa, .333obp, 118wrc+, 3.9war650
4. C Alejandro 148pa, .355obp, 116wrc+, 6.1war650
5. RF Santander 66pa, .311obp, 111wrc+, 1.0war650
6. CF Varsho 180pa, .291obp, 99wrc+, 2.9war650
7. 3B Barger 159pa, .314obp, 108wrc+, 2.9war650
8. LF Lukes 110pa, .338obp, 107wrc+, 2.4war650
9. 2B Gimenez 178pa, .319obp, 97wrc+, 3.7war650

B. UT Schneider 57pa, .325obp, 104wrc+, 2.3war650
B. OF Straw 38pa, 300obp, 74wrc+, 1.7war650
B. IF Clement 100pa, .307obp, 94wrc+, 2.6war650
B. C Heineman 48pa, .324obp, 91wrc+, 4.1war650

X. UT France 76pa, .327obp, 102wrc+, 0.9war650
X. OF Loperfido 119pa, .303obp, 94wrc+, 1.6war650
X. IF Jimenez 4pa, .325obp, 94wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C Bethancourt 0pa, .277obp, 91wrc+, 0.0war650

X. UT Martinez 2pa, .274obp, 79wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Clase 15pa, .292obp, 81wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Stefanic 0pa, .356obp, 109wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C Sanchez 6pa, .279obp, 71wrc+, 0.0war650
 
So we lose Springer, and we lose Kirk...this team was working because all the parts were working together.

Now we add the loss of Kirk to the pitching side, best framer in the game...there was gong to be a slide I think.

Sure it could just be because this team wasn't real...I know the haters here love that...but it is a bit of a coincidence to see the team start suffering when it did.
 
Jays' projected war the rest of the way is 14.0, good for 3rd in the AL and 8th in MLB, but within 0.7war of 1st in the AL and 3rd MLB, (while only one team below them is within 1.0war).

And those projections are being as or more significantly impacted by current injuries than most - Springer Giminez Santander Heineman Bieber Garcia Manoah Sandlin all projected to be missing significant time at the moment, with significantly positive war projections.
 
Bleedsblue&white said:
So we lose Springer, and we lose Kirk...this team was working because all the parts were working together.

Now we add the loss of Kirk to the pitching side, best framer in the game...there was gong to be a slide I think.

Sure it could just be because this team wasn't real...I know the haters here love that...but it is a bit of a coincidence to see the team start suffering when it did.
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Yeah, it’s a coincidence. This is how baseball seasons go. Ups and downs. That’s why it’s useful to step back every now and again and look at the aggregate. This team is in first place, but has been lucky with the W-L record.

I personally expect that the deadline additions will help offset some expected regression, and optimistic they can probably hang on to first place.
 
Jays are 4th AL and 8th MLB in runs scored per game, 3rd and 6th in wRC+. They've been a tad unlucky offensively so far, but are still right there with most any team.

The run prevention has been bad, with an ERA 13th in AL and 23rd MLB.

Except that the runs have been concentrated solely in the shitty pitchers who are not part of the roster anymore - in terms of Active Rosters, the jays' ERA ranks 5th AL a d 11th MLB, and that doesn't include Bieber or Yimi.

So while you might argue that the jays have been "lucky" not to lose more games due to poor run prevention, the reality is probably closer to being that most that extra runs allowance against fill-in SP and deep BP depth is concentrated in many fewer games, and is probably mostly irrelevant.
 
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