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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

MindzEye said:
The GM isn't going to the fucking Yukon if he's not convinced that he wants the player on his team. You do that kind of visit to try to figure out if there are any massive red flags in the person before you make the jump.

That trip, when you count travel from door to door is basically an entire business day each way.
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I assume odog is going to be extremely complimentary that he isn't doing this via zoom
 
worm said:
Not sure about that. One game (8 points) is doing the heavy lifting for his second half.

I'm sure your nerd(s) will have a better sense.
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His WHL season before was off the charts good. Generational good. His 2nd half counting stats in the NCAA, if extrapolated over an entire season are as good as any 17 yr old who has ever played there. If it wasn't for the 1st half wobble (largely oish% driven) the conversation would be different.

Our nerds would be looking at his chance generation numbers which were obscene (better than Celebrini's) and his possession numbers (elite elite).
 
MindzEye said:
His WHL season before was off the charts good. Generational good. His 2nd half counting stats in the NCAA, if extrapolated over an entire season are as good as any 17 yr old who has ever played there. If it wasn't for the 1st half wobble (largely oish% driven) the conversation would be different.

Our nerds would be looking at his chance generation numbers which were obscene (better than Celebrini's) and his possession numbers (elite elite).
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Basically some scouts doubted him because he only put up a ppg over a 17 game stretch.

A stretch proceeded by one of the best jr seasons of all time, and succeeded by a 2ppg wjc and 33 pts in 18 games in ncaa. It’s bananas.
 
mbow30 said:
Basically some scouts doubted him because he only put up a ppg over a 17 game stretch.

A stretch proceeded by one of the best jr seasons of all time, and succeeded by a 2ppg wjc and 33 pts in 18 games in ncaa. It’s bananas.
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A stretch where he had crazy high chance generation numbers, but ~5% oish. Which analytics experts everywhere have a highly technical term for: "bad puck luck".

Even if, as worm refers to, you remove the 8 point game (which you shouldn't, but let's do it anyway) he had 25 points in 17 games in the 2nd half.

1.47ppg

Fantilli - 1.81
Eichel - 1.78
Celebrini - 1.68
Heatley - 1.47
Kessel - 1.31

Include the game, because it's a thing that happened and "it's doing a lot of heavy lifting" when the rest of the sample is 1.47ppg is kind of a ridiculous thing to say and you get 1.83ppg

As a small 17-18 yr old playing in a NCAA that has gotten significantly more competitive than it was when Eichel, Heatley, or Kessel played in it, playing on a team that he was the only elite talent on (Fantilli's michigan team was basically a travelling all star team, and Celebrini played with Lane Hutson and a bag of 2nd rounders)
 
MindzEye said:
A stretch where he had crazy high chance generation numbers, but ~5% oish. Which analytics experts everywhere have a highly technical term for: "bad puck luck".

Even if, as worm refers to, you remove the 8 point game (which you shouldn't, but let's do it anyway) he had 25 points in 17 games in the 2nd half.

1.47ppg

Fantilli - 1.81
Eichel - 1.78
Celebrini - 1.68
Heatley - 1.47
Kessel - 1.31

Include the game, because it's a thing that happened and "it's doing a lot of heavy lifting" when the rest of the sample is 1.47ppg is kind of a ridiculous thing to say and you get 1.83ppg

As a small 17-18 yr old playing in a NCAA that has gotten significantly more competitive than it was when Eichel, Heatley, or Kessel played in it, playing on a team that he was the only elite talent on (Fantilli's michigan team was basically a travelling all star team, and Celebrini played with Lane Hutson and a bag of 2nd rounders)
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bottom line the ceiling is too high to pass on here. Pretty sure Mats and BurgerBoy will realize that.
 
Artnes said:
That shit mindset set this franchise back quite a few years

View attachment 34811
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The really frustrating thing is this wasn’t even an example of overrating World Junior results. Rask was voted the most outstanding goalie of that tournament. I think he even had a 60-save shutout.

While Pogge just had to be a version of Freddie Anderson vs the Habs playing behind a generationally stacked Canadian Junior team.
 
LeafGm said:
The really frustrating thing is this wasn’t even an example of overrating World Junior results. Rask was voted the most outstanding goalie of that tournament. I think he even had a 60-save shutout.

While Pogge just had to be a version of Freddie Anderson vs the Habs playing behind a generationally stacked Canadian Junior team.
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The whole thing was emblematic of how shit we were at evaluating everything back then. We had the best goalie prospect the league had seen since probably Fleury and we were given the option of sending our choice of he or Pogge for Raycroft and we chose to send him. Massive amateur scouting fail (and the guy who did the failing is the guy who bleats about amateur scouting for TSN)...and then on the pro scouting end, Raycroft was the worst goalie in the NHL the season previous to the trade. We weren't even buying high on him after the crazy rookie season, we were buying dead ass low on him but our goalie coach at the time watched tape of him and said he was fine, he would bounce back.

This is why relegation should exist. We should have been pushed out of the league for a few years to think about what we did, fire everyone, and come back when we're ready.
 
hockeylover said:

View: https://x.com/RobWong34/status/2062617477876429131?s=20
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Zharovsky is a lovely prospect who looks real gud in Russia. Depending on who the other prospect was, that's not horrible "value" from a pure value standpoint. But the fact he was scrambling around trying to sell off our 23 yr old high end power forward to recoup futures from his epic fucking failure deadline purchases and that was his best idea. What in the flying fuck.

Same guy didn't manage to sell off OEL because he was spending his time on this. Almost fucked up the Roy trade because this is what he was spending his time on.

Easily the worst executive in hockey.
 
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