zeke
Well-known member
Sure you can.
OT: The Toronto Blue Jays
- Thread starter PlayerToBeNamedLater
- Start date
Sure you can.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Is there where we're going to get into a conversation about pyth, statcast expected runs, etc, etc that all say more or less the same thing about the Jays or are you just going to try to Zeke me with their rankings in cherry picked team statistics that aren't actually well establish predictive indicators of W/L record?
Jays rankings:
MLB W%: 3rd
Raw Run Diff: 10th
Pyth: 10th
Baseruns: 10th
ESPN ExWP: 11th
Somewhat unrelated to that point, but important:
Last 10 WS Champions (Reg Season plain old boring run/diff ranking)
2024: Dodgers (1st)
2023: Rangers (4th)
2022: Houston (3rd)
2021: Atlanta (7th)
2020: Dodgers (1st)
2019: Washington (6th)
2018: Boston (2nd)
2017: Houston (3rd)
2016: Cubs (1st)
2015: Royals (6th)
High: 1st, Low: 7th, Average: 3rd
Bleedsblue&white
Well-known member
our own little wehave, isn't that special?
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
That's fair, I've been a hard skeptic of the organization for about a decade now and nothing they've done since has shown me that they're anymore than pretty good at being okay and despite the excitement generated by a 29-11 stretch, I don't see the real evidence of them being an actual world series threat. Making the statement that it looks like I'm enjoying this season less than others is accurate, no argument there.
To lay it down for an outsider, this is as if the Leafs went on a 10-2 rip at the end of the season and got everyone all excited about winning the division, but did so with medicore xG so when they actually ran into a nerdies monster team in the playoffs, pretty predictably lost because they probably weren't actually "108 point" good, as xG had predicted.
Except "run diff" (or it's various, more complicated iterations) are actually better predictive statistics than xG is, though obviously similar in nature.
leafman101
Well-known member
Ok, but you can’t deny that they could win a playoff game this year.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I hope they win many and shut me up.
I'm just not giving many fucks about a ~91 win division title. Division titles are cute, but they're a throwback to when you had to win your division to make the playoffs...I don't really care that the Leafs won the division last year either, it's not the measure of success I'm looking for.
"Won a game in the playoffs" shouldn't be the top of the mountain for a 10 yr front office regime.
zeke
Well-known member
No, this is where i tell you to look at something that actually considers the players likely on the roster going forward and not just what the team has done on the season so far.
So if we look at fangraphs' rest of season depth chart projections, we see these total war projections the rest of the way:
1. LAD 14.5 (44gms)
2. PHI 14.0 (45gms)
3. NYY 13.0 (44gms)
4. SDP 12.9 (44gms)
5. NYM 12.7 (44gms)
6. TOR 12.6 (43gms)
6. SEA 12.6 (43gms)
8. CHC 12.6 (45gms)
9. HOU 11.9 (44gms)
10. TEX 11.1 (43gms)
So you get LAD as a clearcut #1, PHI as a clearcut #2, and then 6 teams clumped up within 0.4, including TOR who is projected to get that WAR in one fewer game than the others aside from SEA (technically tor and sea are tied for 5th in projected war per game, a few thousandths of a point behind SDP in 4th). After that it's a substantial drop to HOU at #9, and then another big drop to TEX at #10.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Mindz totally nutted after the Vladdy/Starger back to back yesterday and projected it onto me.
No, not literally, you depraved sickos.
But he's definitely having fun and downplaying it so as to guard against a broken heart.
No, not literally, you depraved sickos.
But he's definitely having fun and downplaying it so as to guard against a broken heart.
zeke
Well-known member
Why do you keep forgetting that they are 1st in the AL tho.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Zeke's transformation from fighting every positive word out of Axl for years about Shatkins to now defending the crown and legacy of the Shatkings against Mindz is actually one of the best things about this sudden leap to the next level by our beloved Jays.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Do you have any evidence that this has better predictive value than run diff based stats though? My understanding of WAR based predictive tools is that they're actually better early in the season than they are late in the season (because projecting small sample is hard) but regardless of how they're used, on the team level, just not as good as run diff:
From one of the OG Fangraphs guys, Sean Dolinar:
zeke
Well-known member
This argument you've invented where you create an artificial arbitrary endpoint sample in order to dismiss over a third of the season so far and a quarter of the total season is a weird one for sure.
Actually i can't even find that 29-11 stretch you're talking about now that i look.
I did find a 37-14 stretch which is better and much longer than your 29-11 stretch tho.
And they're currently in the midst of a 56-34 stretch. That's a 100 win pace over the last 90gms.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Wait till Bieber fever infects them.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Not forgetting, I just don't care about it if the underlying numbers suggest it's luck driven.
Listen man, my body is entirely fucking ready for them to prove me wrong and win playoff games. But I don't find your argument that the real outlier on the season is a 10 game stretch that they got blown out during. I think run diff is more important than you're suggesting, and I think it shows us to be lucky to be in 1st right now. Which doesn't make us a bad ball club, and the playoffs is a funny beast. But I would definitely feel better about this if we were 5th or some shit in run diff (where championship teams have come from in recent years) and not 10th with a recent look at the champs leading to an 18-7 series beat down.
zeke
Well-known member
It's not hard to criticize bad play and praise good play. Not all of us care about our personal fetishes for or against individual names.
Shapkins finally are fielding a team that is doong what the payroll suggests it should do. That's no great accomplishment.
And the best move of the offseason was rogers stepping up and paying vladdy way more than shatkins were willing to. That move changed everything. Without that we would have been blowing it all up at the deadline.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
All I heard here was, Shatkings Forever.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Except I don't want to use any arbitrary endpoints, I want to use the entire season. Any of my slicing and dicing of samples has been in response to you slicing and dicing samples.
I want to use the entire season, and I think run diff is important. My opinion of the team is largely based on full season run diff. I think that's a better indicator of their level than anything else we have available.