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Hey Nerds: Blockchain

@TheDeepDive_ca
Positive net income in 3-5 years for $CGC

Let that sink in. The company just lost $1.2 BILLION in a single quarter.

How much $$$ will Canopy need to sustain operations for 3-5 more years like this?

Talk about oncoming dilution. Ouch.
 
Ummm...so general electric....the new Enron?

The headlines are pretty spectacular. I havent had the chance yet to wrap my head around what's in the report though.
 
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CH1 said:
@TheDeepDive_ca
Positive net income in 3-5 years for $CGC

Let that sink in. The company just lost $1.2 BILLION in a single quarter.

How much $$$ will Canopy need to sustain operations for 3-5 more years like this?

Talk about oncoming dilution. Ouch.
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Canopy was always destined for more dilution, but at least bruce was selling a "we are taking the amazon approach" line, and the market might have bought it for a couple of years. Instead STZ has put the brakes to that vision but a similar amount of dilution is going to be needed anyway. The market isnt going to buy that shit.
 
So with all this volatility, where would you sink 25-50k or would you keep it liquid for now? I’ve been gun shy lately and it’s just sitting as cash in my portfolio.
 
Habsy said:
So with all this volatility, where would you sink 25-50k or would you keep it liquid for now? I’ve been gun shy lately and it’s just sitting as cash in my portfolio.
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Cash is king right now. Unless you can predict Trump's next tweetstorm. Market is moving on headlines.

I raised my cash levels recently and don't feel the need to jump into the fray. I'm holding some Gold and gold miners (GDX). I might buy those instruments on a dip (they've had a nice run)
 
If one wanted to be aggressive, I'd look into the established China e-commerce names. They've been left for dead, even though Chinese consumer data hasn't been that bad. They will turn first. They are having a good day amid a flat market today.

I picked up HUYA yesterday and have my eye on BABA and JD.
 
Habsy said:
So with all this volatility, where would you sink 25-50k or would you keep it liquid for now? I’ve been gun shy lately and it’s just sitting as cash in my portfolio.
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Here ya go.

@realDonaldTrump
Walmart, a great indicator as to how the U.S. is doing, just released outstanding numbers. Our Country, unlike others, is doing great! Don’t let the Fake News convince you otherwise.
 
MindzEye said:
Probably covering in this range. Any recent shorting would have been done in the that 14.88-15.22 range, no?
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There's lots of long term shorts too. About 2.5M shares when I checked in May. They might be considering taking their profits. $15 is an interesting level. Around the 50 day moving avg.
 
zeke said:
are you guys into Cannabis ETFs are just doing it individually?
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Individually. When you open the hood on most (all) of these ETF's, they've got a bunch of dogshit companies in their portfolio and even when it looks like they don't, they're too slow to react to changes when shit goes sideways. For example, 3 of the darlings of the industry have taken massive shits on investors over the last 6 months and the ETF's didn't rebalance until way after the signs of ****ery were upon us. Shit, one of the biggest cannabis ETF's auto bought a ton of CannTrust after the illegal grow op news came out because nobody had thought to rebalance it after the price cratered. The algo just knew that it was supposed to have 9% of it's total value in CannTrust, so it did. The writing was on the wall for Canopy when Bruce got punted and WEED was the heaviest weighted stock across the industry ETF's...why wait for someone to reprogram the algo when the signs of trouble in the water are already out there.
 
CH1 said:
There's lots of long term shorts too. About 2.5M shares when I checked in May. They might be considering taking their profits. $15 is an interesting level. Around the 50 day moving avg.
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Just at a quick glance (I don't feel like breaking open my charting software to look at the different period moving averages), it still looks like it's either in mild continuing downtrend, or is mid reversal. If I was shorting this stock, I'd probably wait for a stronger signal of reversal before exiting the position. Breaking the high of that August 1st session would be a pretty good signal imo and I'd definitely exit if it broke through that level if I was a longer term short. Downward pressure definitely looks to be running out of steam, so yeah, I wouldn't stick around much longer regardless. If you started this play in may-june, you've made your money.

The one thing that would give me significant pause as a longer term short would be those 3 troughs that keep getting deeper. Late June down to 13.00ish, late July down to low 12.50's, and then early august down a bit under 12.00. You'd really want to see legit strength in a reversal before you exited.
 
MindzEye said:
Individually. When you open the hood on most (all) of these ETF's, they've got a bunch of dogshit companies in their portfolio and even when it looks like they don't, they're too slow to react to changes when shit goes sideways. For example, 3 of the darlings of the industry have taken massive shits on investors over the last 6 months and the ETF's didn't rebalance until way after the signs of ****ery were upon us. Shit, one of the biggest cannabis ETF's auto bought a ton of CannTrust after the illegal grow op news came out because nobody had thought to rebalance it after the price cratered. The algo just knew that it was supposed to have 9% of it's total value in CannTrust, so it did. The writing was on the wall for Canopy when Bruce got punted and WEED was the heaviest weighted stock across the industry ETF's...why wait for someone to reprogram the algo when the signs of trouble in the water are already out there.
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Have you done any comps between your gains and etfs over the last year?
 
zeke said:
Have you done any comps between your gains and etfs over the last year?
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I'm up about 20% over the last calendar year, HMMJ was 16.10 a year ago, and is 15.25 today. No, I haven't done a definitive comparison of my results vs all of the ETF's, I'm not interested enough in the ETF's to bother spending the time. I've taken a look under the hood of a bunch of them and come away cringing each time.

HMMJ is probably the most well known ETF, it's top 10 holdings (in order of weighting) are

- Canopy
- Aurora
- Tilray
- Cronos
- GW Pharma
- Scott's Miracle Gro
- Aphria
- Charlotte's Web
- Hexo
- OGI

So this one is loaded with less crap than a lot of them, and even in here two of the top 3 weighted companies (just over 20% of the total fund) are likely to continue taking a shit kicking (Canopy and Tilray)
 
Here's the entire HMMJ holdings

HORIZONS HMMJ HOLDINGS
as at 08/09/2019
CBDMD INC . 0.21%
CORBUS PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDING . 0.54%
GW PHARMACEUTICALS PLC . 8.07%
INNOVATIVE INDUSTRIAL PROPERTI . 1.22%
PYXUS INTERNATIONAL INC . 0.21%
SCOTTS MIRACLE-GRO CO/THE . 6.11%
TILRAY INC . 9.63%
22ND CENTURY GROUP INC . 0.38%
YOUNGEVITY INTERNATIONAL INC . 0.17%
ZYNERBA PHARMACEUTICALS INC . 0.38%
INTEC PHARMA LTD . 0.02%
ENWAVE CORP . 0.21%
ABATTIS BIOCEUTICALS CORP . 0.02%
HARVEST ONE CANNABIS INC . 0.28%
CHOOM HOLDINGS INC . 0.21%
JAMES E WAGNER CULTIVATION . 0.15%
VILLAGE FARMS INTL INC . 2.07%
FSD PHARMA INC CL B SUBORDINATE VTG 0.47%
VALENS GROWORKS CORP . 0.47%
TETRA BIO-PHARMA INC . 0.13%
HEMPCO FOOD AND FIBER INC . 0.15%
EVE & CO INC . 0.28%
NATIONAL ACCESS CANNABIS CORP . 0.17%
KHIRON LIFE SCIENCES CORP . 0.41%
AUXLY CANNABIS GROUP INC . 1.31%
WEEDMD INC . 0.45%
ALEAFIA HEALTH INC . 0.81%
SPROUTLY CANADA INC . 0.12%
CRONOS GROUP INC . 8.94%
ICC INTL CANNABIS CORP NEW . 0.08%
CANOPY RIVERS INC CL A SUB VTG 0.52%
DELTA 9 CANNABIS INC . 0.27%
HERITAGE CANNABIS HOLDINGS . 0.43%
SUPREME CANNABIS CO INC THE NEW 0.86%
48NORTH CANNABIS CORP . 0.32%
INVICTUS MD STRATEGIES CORP NO PAR 0.13%
FLOWR CORP NEW . 0.70%
GREEN ORGANIC DUTCHMAN HLDGS . 2.79%
VIVO CANNABIS INC . 0.37%
MEDIPHARM LABS CORP . 1.92%
NEPTUNE WELLNESS SOLUTIONS INC . 1.25%
CHARLOTTES WEB HOLDINGS INC . 5.51%
HEXO CORP . 4.12%
ABACUS HEALTH PRODUCTS INC SUB VTG 0.08%
AGRAFLORA ORGANICS INTL INC . 0.22%
WESTLEAF INC . 0.09%
PHARMACIELO LTD NEW . 1.10%
CARDIOL THERAPEUTICS INC CL A 0.09%
CANNARA BIOTECH INC . 0.18%
ZENABIS GLOBAL INC . 0.57%
WAYLAND GROUP CORP . 0.16%
RADIENT TECHNOLOGIES INC . 0.27%
ORGANIGRAM HOLDINGS INC . 2.93%
INMED PHARMACEUTICALS INC . 0.06%
APHRIA INC . 6.26%
AURORA CANNABIS INC . 10.10%
THC BIOMED INTL LTD . 0.03%
EMERALD HEALTH THERAPEUTICS . 0.68%
CANOPY GROWTH CORP . 10.65%
BELEAVE INC . 0.03%
CANNTRUST HOLDINGS INC . 1.33%
NAMASTE TECHNOLOGIES INC . 0.20%
GTEC HOLDINGS LTD . 0.09%
LEXARIA BIOSCIENCE CORP PAR$.001 0.24%



Some good companies in there...but a lot of dogshit. Wayland has been on ****ing halt for months now because Ben is a crook, anyone who didn't see that coming deserves to lose their money. There's zero excuse to hold a dime of namaste at any point in 2019 and that's the tip of the dogshit iceberg in that list.
 
Yeah the ETFs suck. Regardless though, it's all about playing the cycle.

I sold after legalization, bought in December, sold in mid February and just started accumulating again a couple weeks ago. Currently flat on what I accumulated, but made some day trades that put me well in the green. Overall, it's been a very profitable ride. I clearly started accumulating too early, but names like OH have been great for me and GTII has held strong throughout this weeks' ugliness. Those are my two largest holdings so thankfully they've kept me afloat. It's the CURA's that have ****ed me a bit. Oh and CBII - that's a legit heavy ass bag there.

But yeah, those ETFs have a lot of dogshit in them that limit upside.
 
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You said it best: buy low, sell high. You were joking but there's a clear cycle in these speculative stocks that must be respected. It really is that simple.
 
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