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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

zeke said:
Actually i can't even find that 29-11 stretch you're talking about now that i look.
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From the 53rd game of the season starting with the Texas series (immediately after Tampa swept us in May) to the 92nd game of the season (the 10th win of the 10 game streak) 29-11. I'm not married to it, it just had a 3 game sweep to another ALE team of it on one end, and a 1-3 after it. Just what made arbitrary sense to my brain at the time I looked at it. Almost exactly a quarter of the season, came shortly after the quarter pole of the season, was punctuated by the 10 gamer, etc, but of course it's arbitrary. That 29-11 stretch has a 4-7 stretch right in the middle of it. Could slice it up different ways as well. It's all arbitrary.
 
MindzEye said:
Not forgetting, I just don't care about it if the underlying numbers suggest it's luck driven.

Listen man, my body is entirely fucking ready for them to prove me wrong and win playoff games. But I don't find your argument that the real outlier on the season is a 10 game stretch that they got blown out during. I think run diff is more important than you're suggesting, and I think it shows us to be lucky to be in 1st right now. Which doesn't make us a bad ball club, and the playoffs is a funny beast. But I would definitely feel better about this if we were 5th or some shit in run diff (where championship teams have come from in recent years) and not 10th with a recent look at the champs leading to an 18-7 series beat down.
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The big thing to me this year is not really whether the Jays are great or not. I probably agree with you, the team is more like a 65 win team than a 69 win team.

But to me, the AL sucks donkey balls. That's what gives me the most hope. The Jays are looking as good as anyone out there. Sure they'd probably lose a series to the Dodgers, but it's still 50/50 the Dodgers choke in the playoffs before even making it to the finals.
 
UWHabs said:
But to me, the AL sucks donkey balls. That's what gives me the most hope.
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This I agree with 100%

I don't think this team is much different than the 22-23 teams overall. There are no 100 win teams at the top of the pile this time around though. The best teams in the league all look like they're from the NL, and none of the AL teams are scary.
 
It often takes young guys a few months to learn how to hit major league pitching: the gap between AAA and MLB is massive right now. Some cup of coffees last year, but Schneider was terrible out of the gate this year. Barger and Loperfido went to the minors, Barger struggled when he first came up. Team taking a month or so to figure out how to incorporate new hitting coach changes in game action. It is possible the team is much better now than they were at the start, at least as far as the bats are concerned.

Whether they're the #1 team, 5th best as seen in Zeke's stat, or 10th, 12 teams make the playoffs. Where anything can happen, and usually does. Stop Debbie Downing and enjoy the ride.
 
axlsalinger said:
It often takes young guys a few months to learn how to hit major league pitching: the gap between AAA and MLB is massive right now. Some cup of coffees last year, but Schneider was terrible out of the gate this year. Barger and Loperfido went to the minors, Barger struggled when he first came up. Team taking a month or so to figure out how to incorporate new hitting coach changes in game action. It is possible the team is much better now than they were at the start, at least as far as the bats are concerned.

Whether they're the #1 team, 5th best as seen in Zeke's stat, or 10th, 12 teams make the playoffs. Where anything can happen, and usually does. Stop Debbie Downing and enjoy the ride.
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Yeah, I don't really understand why earlier in the season would be more telling than later in the season.

Slumps, injuries, schedule, etc., are random.
 
Everybody knows what is happening here. ME just can’t admit he was wrong about shatkins and that all of us folks who spent the past 10 years telling him to trust our elite front office were right.
 
axlsalinger said:
Whether they're the #1 team, 5th best as seen in Zeke's stat, or 10th, 12 teams make the playoffs. Where anything can happen, and usually does.
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But that's the rub, it doesn't. What happens in the playoffs is that a team who was a top ~3 team in regular season run diff wins the World Series.

axlsalinger said:
Stop Debbie Downing and enjoy the ride.
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"The Jays are probably pretty good but not elite contender good"

iu
 
axlsalinger said:
It often takes young guys a few months to learn how to hit major league pitching: the gap between AAA and MLB is massive right now. Some cup of coffees last year, but Schneider was terrible out of the gate this year. Barger and Loperfido went to the minors, Barger struggled when he first came up. Team taking a month or so to figure out how to incorporate new hitting coach changes in game action. It is possible the team is much better now than they were at the start, at least as far as the bats are concerned.

Whether they're the #1 team, 5th best as seen in Zeke's stat, or 10th, 12 teams make the playoffs. Where anything can happen, and usually does. Stop Debbie Downing and enjoy the ride.
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Calling WAR projections "zeke's stat" is hilar.


And don't let ME's fake samples fool you - the jays didn't have a slow start. They were very good the first 20gms.
 
Run Diff per game

1. MIL +1.17
2. CHC +1.00
3. PHI +0.79
4. LAD +0.72
5. NYY +0.71
6. BOS +0.69
7. DET +0.65
8. TEX +0.50
9. HOU +0.46
10. TOR +0.37




TOR

MAR/APR: 14-16 (.467), -1.13 runs/gm
SINCE: 55-34 (.618), +0.88 runs/gm

Jays have an elite record and an elite run diff since april.

And even that march/april went

20gms, 12-8 (.600), +0.30 runs/gm
10gms, 2-8 (.200), -4.00 runs/gm

And half the roster from april is gone now.
 
Since May 1 (not including tonight):

1. MIL 86gms, 57-29 (.663), +1.26r/gm
2. TOR 89gms, 55-34 (.618), +0.88r/gm
3. PHI 87gms, 51-36 (.586), +0.97r/gm
4. HOU 88gms, 50-38 (.568), +0.47r/gm
5. CHC 86gms, 49-37 (.570), +0.81r/gm
6. DET 88gms, 49-39 (.557), +0.42r/gm
7. BOS 87gms, 48-39 (.552), +0.78r/gm
8. LAD 87gms, 47-40 (.540), +0.58r/gm
9. SEA 89gms, 48-41 (.539), +0.16r/gm
10. SDP 88gms, 47-41 (.534), +0.08r/gm

14. NYY 87gms, 44-43 (.507), +0.33r/gm


Jays have done a good job faking being an elite team - by record and run diff - for almost the entire season.
 
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