The ****ing Pre-Season/Training Camp Thread (2019/20)

[Artnes]

Marner too. Have a trio of hockey bro chuds on one line

 

[leafman101]

2019-20 NHL Season Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs are in the top tier of Stanley Cup contenders but familiar foes will once again stand in their path.

theathletic.com

 

[Artnes]

It the stars align and everyone can stay relatively healthy there is no reason not to come out of the division in 2nd with home ice

 

[leafman101]

Yes, they have a good chance at the division. But under Dom's model Tampa is 1st and Boston is 3rd. So it'll be a slug fest to get out of the division once again with arguably the 3 best teams in the NHL. Maybe unarguably.

 

[BeLeafer]

2019-20 NHL Season Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs are in the top tier of Stanley Cup contenders but familiar foes will once again stand in their path.

theathletic.com

Man, did I take a lot of gruff for basically arguing this last year:

That puts the team’s best defenceman, Morgan Rielly (who ranks one spot ahead of Barrie in 5-on-5 points per 60), on the second pair where he can thrive having been freed from the rigours of daunting competition on a nightly basis (though he still has a very weak partner to carry as is tradition). He’s the embodiment of the outscore players in shutdown minutes mantra as he ranks first among defencemen in terms of offensive impact but last in defensive impact. The fact that he still brings elite value to the table despite that is a testament to his offensive gifts.

Is Dom still your boy, zeke?

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

Toronto 2
Florida 3

 

[BeLeafer]

I might have a case of the preseason boner but I think he's understating the points the Leafs put up this year.

 

[leafman101]

I saw some analysis that suggested Vasilevskiy was helped by an easier than average workload.

His dsv was 0.07 and GAA 0.98 (very slightly above average).

I think its probably time to move on from all situation save% to evaluate goalies.

 

[Volcanologist]

I might have a case of the preseason boner but I think he's understating the points the Leafs put up this year.

He is if 2nd in the NHL is his prediction. I don't think 105 will be enough to finish that high.

 

[Artnes]

any type of regression from Vasilevsky puts Tampa in their radar

3 year split @ 5v5

GP	SV%	GAA	GSAA	xG Against
50​	0.924​	2.29​	-0.23​	76.02​
65​	0.931​	2.2​	3.19​	104.76​
53​	0.929​	2.22​	10.07​	92.26​

 

[zeke]

Goalie stats are still weird.

Iirc dsv% doesn't like vasi much but I've also seen other stats that say tbay does give up a ton of slot chances.

 

[Artnes]

Natural Statrick has them at 7th overall for HDCA at 5v5 (673)

 

[zeke]

Man, did I take a lot of gruff for basically arguing this last year:

Is Dom still your boy, zeke?

He is.

But separating For stats and Against stats in that way still seems off to me. i.e. he could easily improve his defensive stats by being less aggressive defensively.

 

[zeke]

Natural Statrick has them at 7th overall for HDCA at 5v5 (673)

yeah, most of the sites available have them as very good in scoring chances against.

but I have also seen tweets claiming their 'slot chances' and such and such were actually quite poor. so I dunno.

 

[leafman101]

 

[Artnes]

christ that has to change if they want to go deep

 

[zeke]

On a less positive note, I'm increasingly concerned about Kappy's offensive limitations. Not great passing skill and weak vision too.

yeah clearly playmaking will never be a strength for him, but he's still pretty damn good - fast, strong, good hands, great shot.

the thing is it seems like almost a certainty that we should be trading one of Johnsson or Kappy this offseason to help re-sign the defense (not Kerfoot, because we need the C), and the play of guys like Mikheyev and Moore only make that more obvious.

So there's a few questions to consider...

...which of johnsson or kappy is better?

...which has more trade value?

...should we stick them both on the top 2 lines to inflate their stats as much as possible, even if it might be slightly better for the team to put one or both on the 3rd line?

 

[LeafGm]

Apparently Dubas only found out about the Matthews incident from Twitter. IMO, this is completely unacceptable from the Matthews camp, and I believe you guys should not only not give him the captaincy, but perhaps even consider trading him. While I don't approve of his conduct, perhaps a swap for the young son of a former TML veteran would be in the best interest of both clubs?

10/10

I'll admit, you had me fooled and ready to go off on you until the last sentence of this post.

 

[zeke]

interesting numbers.

xG/gm isn't actually a huge gap - though it is significant (0.2/gm).

can you explain to me those rebounds stats definitions? because it seems like freddy is giving up way, way more rebounds into the slot there - almost enough to arguably account for most of the difference in xG.

 

[BeLeafer]

But separating For stats and Against stats in that way still seems off to me.

As before, I strongly disagree, as do most other stats nerds out there.