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The ****ing Pre-Season/Training Camp Thread (2019/20)

zeke said:
interesting numbers.

xG/gm isn't actually a huge gap - though it is significant (0.2/gm).

can you explain to me those rebounds stats definitions? because it seems like freddy is giving up way, way more rebounds into the slot there - almost enough to arguably account for most of the difference in xG.
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No I can't. It looks like raw numbers, but 140 seems way too low rebound shots off of 3000 total shots.
 
zeke said:
yeah clearly playmaking will never be a strength for him, but he's still pretty damn good - fast, strong, good hands, great shot.

the thing is it seems like almost a certainty that we should be trading one of Johnsson or Kappy this offseason to help re-sign the defense (not Kerfoot, because we need the C), and the play of guys like Mikheyev and Moore only make that more obvious.

So there's a few questions to consider...

...which of johnsson or kappy is better?

...which has more trade value?

...should we stick them both on the top 2 lines to inflate their stats as much as possible, even if it might be slightly better for the team to put one or both on the 3rd line?
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I posted on those questions before. I'd say AJ is better and that Kappy has more trade value. Let's inflate Kappy while Hyman is out. Would be nice to sell high and give them some added cap flexibility. Certainly, Moore's and Mikheyev's performance make this easier. Of course, you'd wait until those guys get a bunch more games before pullling the trigger.
 
zeke said:
they're finally coming around to grudgingly agree with me on qoc.
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Agree there. It's still at the eybeballing stage though.

it's only a matter of time until they figure this one out, too.
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There's nothing to figure out. It's silly to ignore underlying statistics but I'm not doing this debate again.
 
BeLeafer said:
Agree there. It's still at the eybeballing stats though.


There's nothing to figure out. It's silly to ignore underlying statistics but I'm not doing this debate again.
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I think there is something to figure out - separating two numbers that are inseparable leads to weak conclusions.

As I've mentioned, barrie has better "defensive" numbers than any of our defenders. But that doesn't mean he's actually better defensively imo.
 
zeke said:
I think there is something to figure out - separating two numbers that are inseparable leads to weak conclusions.
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If they were inseparable, they would not be measured separately. You favourite stats are composites.
 
Hainsey 2.66xgf/60
Zaitsev 2.38xgf/60
Barrie 2.37xgf/60

and hainsey had tougher competition!

obviously, ron hainsey is significantly better offensively than Tyson Barrie.

Barrie and Zaitsev are equally as good offensively.
 
Like I said, I'm not doing this debate again. I know stats and I'm totally comfortable with my view on it.
 
I think these stats still suffer a bit from the +/- issue, in that isolating effects of one player on the ice is very difficult. To a certain extent on-ice stats, even relative ones, are dependent on other variables (QoT, QoC and PDO). So it is a question of how certain you can be of any conclusions you draw from stats like that.

I know ineffective math does a lot of work on isolation, but his stuff is behind a paywall.

Because yeah, what conclusions can you really draw from those xGF numbers with any certainty?
 
BeLeafer said:
Like I said, I'm not doing this debate again. I know stats and I'm totally comfortable with my view on it.
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I just don't see how you can look at those numbers I just posted and still be comfortable that they tell us anything of value at all in isolation.
 
Reminds me of this quote from earlier in the thread:

Artnes said:
@ryanfancey

Tulsky on the Full 60 pod was interesting. Main takeaway I had about public vs in-house analytics is people using public data generally seem to be way overconfident in their conclusions given what they’re using.

Also the quick example of what’s behind the curtain Tulsky gave was like, publicly available stats are from tracking maybe 300 data points per game. Teams already have access to about 3000.
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BeLeafer said:
I don't take cherry picking worse case scenarios seriously.
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why do you think that's a worst case scenario?

it was literally looking at the most glaring example right in front of our faces, the examples most closesly related to Rielly's numbers.
 
MindzEye said:
and wow were we missing anything with skill on RHD. Barrie is a breath of fresh air on the right.

Ceci also pretty skilled with the puck, and a huge upgrade from Zaitsev. Barrie-Ceci over Hainsey-Zaitsev is just night and fucking day, and isn't being talked about nearly enough outside of this board.
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But I thought you said it was guaranteed that Ceci was shit, that Dubas would never sign him, and that the numbers didn’t lie. What happened?
 
LeafOfFaith said:
But I thought you said it was guaranteed that Ceci was shit, that Dubas would never sign him, and that the numbers didn’t lie. What happened?
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So you're shitting on me for, without being prompted, suggesting that I might have been wrong and am open to changing my mind eh?

Stay classy.
 
I'm not quite ready to jump on the #Ceci'ssActuallyGood bandwagon just yet. Not after a handful of pre-season games against the partial-NHL lineups of a couple of truly awful (Ottawa, Buffalo) NHL teams and a middle-of-the-pack team in Montreal.

That he appears to be better at moving the puck than Zaitsev so far should be no surprise though. It'd be pretty damn hard to be worse than Zaitsev in that respect, and that does confirm what the numbers said as well.

If Ceci does end up panning out as a passable/capable partner for Rielly over the long-haul this season though, then Dubas will deserve some major props. Along with just about everybody on this board, pretty much the entirety of hockey twitter was baffled by the Leafs' intent to actually keep Ceci and play him in the top-4 rather than doing whatever was necessary to walk away from his contract.
 
MindzEye said:
So you're shitting on me for, without being prompted, suggesting that I might have been wrong and am open to changing my mind eh?

Stay classy.
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I’m not shitting on you, though you were shitting on me back then. I just think it’s worth pointing out that sometimes an opinion is just an opinion.
 
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