• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

MindzEye said:
I don't know enough about the micro/tracking stats to have a particularly strong opinion, but my vibe on them is that they're a lot of noisy stuff that gets baked into the macro shot volume/quality metrics already. For example, being obsessed with the specific size of the gap a defender gives in transition if it doesn't actually lead to a meaningful reduction in shot chances strikes me as a bias confirmation exercise, but with spreadsheets because I'm a progressive hockey data person. There's a reason there's a schism in the data community, a lot of the tracking stats are just people assuming traditionalist knowledge on the sport is valid and then trying to justify it through data. It would be like if Billy Beane got obsessed with how many pitches a batter was fouling off because something something putting pressure on the pitcher rather than OBP, which has a direct correlation with runs, which has a direct correlation with wins.
Click to expand...
My impression of Chayka prior to the leafs hiring him was that he was a bit of a galaxy brain thinker type with that stuff and put more importance on things that don't really have a clear use case. It's all information, and information is nice, but if there is not a template out there for how to use that information with a proven success rate, I'm not sure what the point of it is.

But then he got hired and said some awesome shit. Until July 1st of course. And then days later he fired the guy that he didn't listen to on July 1st. I'm willing to see this out, but I'm growing skeptical.
 
Convenient that the team gave them more money and resources than any other analytics department also never listened to them.

All their July 1 signings were pretty consistent analytically with Dubas depth additions fwiw.
 
Preston said:

View: https://x.com/i/status/2075238026519670807

Not surprised to see Leach gone. Draft looked good tho without Tre influence so that's unfortunate.

I'm guessing the entire analytics team hired by shanny in 2014 will be canned. Those guys were pioneers of the analytics movement, it's too bad. Hopefully they replace them with some smart folks.
Click to expand...


It's definitely iffy, but i'm not against the overhaul. Would have been better to see this done sooner, tho, before they had the rare opportunity of using all that capspace, which they'll probably never have again.

but the analytics department we had was definitely not irreplaceable.
 
I mean he was clearly one of the early day pioneers of the movement. Whether he was as competent as the guys in other organizations is a different story. But he created extraskater.com, which was one of the first quality nerdie sites out there which the leafs bought out.
 
zeke said:
It's definitely iffy, but i'm not against the overhaul. Would have been better to see this done sooner, tho, before they had the rare opportunity of using all that capspace, which they'll probably never have again.

but the analytics department we had was definitely not irreplaceable.
Click to expand...

They have it again in 2 years.
 
leafman101 said:
Convenient that the team gave them more money and resources than any other analytics department also never listened to them.
Click to expand...

I mean, a former member of the analytics department has flat out stated that Sheldon and his staff didn't listen. We know Babcock had the analytics department making up metrics that he thought were important (remember "heavy shifts", lol). Brad and Craig were clearly not analytically forward hockey people.
 
zeke said:
It's definitely iffy, but i'm not against the overhaul. Would have been better to see this done sooner, tho, before they had the rare opportunity of using all that capspace, which they'll probably never have again.

but the analytics department we had was definitely not irreplaceable.
Click to expand...
They could have at least listened to the existing department on July 1st before firing them. Even just a little bit would have helped save lots of money. As you say, not irreplaceable, so we'll see who they're replaced with. I trust he'll listen to the guys he brings in.
 
Preston said:
I mean he was clearly one of the early day pioneers of the movement. Whether he was as competent as the guys in other organizations is a different story. But he created extraskater.com, which was one of the first quality nerdie sites out there which the leafs bought out.
Click to expand...

Ok 14 years ago he had an online presence. Now his contemporaries like Mehta, Parnass, Tulsky, Dellow have their names on the cup.
 
zeke said:
It's definitely iffy, but i'm not against the overhaul. Would have been better to see this done sooner, tho, before they had the rare opportunity of using all that capspace, which they'll probably never have again.

but the analytics department we had was definitely not irreplaceable.
Click to expand...

Yeah, as a stand alone thing it's a meh. Replace the analytics team with your own.

But in conjunction with his July 1st performance, this is another point of concern. I think this probably has more to do with him being a micro stats/tracking guy and our department more than likely still being believers in the macro stats.
 
leafman101 said:
Ok 14 years ago he had an online presence. Now his contemporaries like Mehta, Parnass, Tulsky have their names on the cup.
Click to expand...
I said early day pioneer. It got him hired to an NHL club. I didn't say he won a cup or he's a brilliant mind. A week ago even you were blowing Metcalf. Now he's fired so he sucks.
 
I’m just saying their resume here isn’t great.

Firing him and disbanding the analytics department would be bad. But that’s obviously not going to happen.

It’s definitely upgradable.
 
Doing this days after the July 1st debacle is what is concerning for me. He clearly did not listen to anyone who values macro analytics, and blew a lot of money in the process.

Big money contract on goalie and spending tens of millions on fourth liners is universally against everything that nerds believe in. Mehta would never.

I'm not surprised at the firing at all. He clearly didn't listen to the guy last week.
 
Preston said:
They could have at least listened to the existing department on July 1st before firing them. Even just a little bit would have helped save lots of money. As you say, not irreplaceable, so we'll see who they're replaced with. I trust he'll listen to the guys he brings in.
Click to expand...
But how do we know they didn’t listen to them one last time? He probably planned to fire them and hire his own people as soon as he got hired.
 
leafman101 said:
They have it again in 2 years.
Click to expand...

not sure i'm too optimistic about them drastically changing their cap allotment framework two years from now.

tbh, the most important thing for me in terms of a "data driven" approach is legit just the framework of where in the lineup they think cap should be allotted too.
 
Preston said:
Doing this days after the July 1st debacle is what is concerning for me. He clearly did not listen to anyone who values macro analytics, and blew a lot of money in the process.

Big money contract on goalie and spending tens of millions on fourth liners is universally against everything that nerds believe in. Mehta would never.
Click to expand...

So then you should be happy they fired the nerds.

There is nothing clear about listening/not listening.

Besides the most important part of the job is convincing people to listen to you
 
Preston said:
Doing this days after the July 1st debacle is what is concerning for me. He clearly did not listen to anyone who values macro analytics, and blew a lot of money in the process.

Big money contract on goalie and spending tens of millions on fourth liners is universally against everything that nerds believe in. Mehta would never.

I'm not surprised at the firing at all. He clearly didn't listen to the guy last week.
Click to expand...

do we have a summary of what Mehta's done this offseason just for interest's sake. I haven't been paying too close attention.
 
zeke said:
do we have a summary of what Mehta's done this offseason just for interest's sake. I haven't been paying too close attention.
Click to expand...

Traded his big contract goalie, going cheap and lean in goal.

Offer sheeted Hayton, which was matched.

Acquired lombardi for a 4th. Cheap, low risk bet that probably won't work out but has some upside as a successful ahl player that hasn't been given a chance yet in the NHL.

Traded Nemec for a decent haul.

Extended hischier to a nice contract

Think that's pretty much it? The philosophies since July 1st are night and day compared to Toronto.
 
NHL Analytics aren't rocket science btw. It's very obvious that Metcalf was not listened to on July 1st, don't be naive. He didn't tell them to spend $20m on fourth liners and to sign that bob contract. No data driven human being would. Plus Chayka mentioned all agms except him in his presser.

But yeah, you can argue he maybe doesn't have the right personality and isn't convincing enough. Idk the guy enough but that's a valid argument against him.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top