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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

leafman101 said:
I’m just saying their resume here isn’t great.
Click to expand...

At best it's incomplete. As an organization we just haven't valued it consistently since pretty much ever. Our decision makers have paid lip service to it, but we've never been all in on it. Faulting them for people not listening to the data and analysis they generated is a pretty weak argument imo.

With that said, I'm open to the idea that the department can be improved upon. But we should have some serious concern that Chayka is doing the tear down and remodel imo for reasons stated by others. A bunch of what we've seen in the last 2 weeks has been contrary to data, not supported by it.
 
lemme see...

Sunny moves (for guys who aren't just near league min)

1. #10 '24 6'7" 20yr old dman Silayev signed to ELC ($1.075 hit)

2. #2 '22 6'1" 22yr old RFA dman Nemec (extended $7.25 x 5) + 28yr old W Tsyplakov ($2.25 x1) for 2027 VGK 1st + 2028 COL 1st + 2026 NYR 2nd (traded) + #48 ''23 6'1" 21yr old D Morin ($0.9 x2).

3. 4th for 26yr old D Chisholm ($1.6 x1)

4. #35 for #37 + #119

5. #140 for #149 + #222

6. 25yr old W Gritsyuk extended $3.25 x3

7. 36yr old G Markstrom ($6.0 x2) + 27yr old W Crookshank ($0.9 x1) for 32yr old W Rodrigues ($3.1 x1) + 28yr old W Boqvist ($1.5 x1) + 24yr old W Steeves ($0.9 x1)

8. Extended 28yr old C Hischier $11.7 x5yrs (starts a season from now)

9. $4.8m x1 offersheet for Hayton (kinda clever but imo always gonna be matched)


They have about $8.5m to add one forward or $9.5 to add two forwards to this group. or maybe a goalie i guess.

Meier 29 --- Hughes 25 --- Bratt 27
Gritsyuk 25 --- Hischier 27 --- Mercer 24
Rodrigues 32 --- Glass 27 --- Brown 32
Boqvist 27 --- Bjugstad 33 --- Noesen 33

Hughes 22 --- Hamilton 33
Siegenthaler 29 --- Pesce 31
Dillon 35 --- Kovacevic 28
(Chisholm 26)

Allen 35
Daws 25
​
Interestingly their bottom 6 there costs $14.6m, which is cheaper than the Leafs' but still not exactly bargain hunting.
​
 
Preston said:
Fuck. Let's aim higher than intern
Click to expand...

iu


All I'm saying is that if you're serious about hiring my client, he's going to need 200K a year and a retainer.
 
We’ve been adding the exact same player for the better part of a decade over two different regimes, but the analytics guys had nothing to do with it?

Dubas and Chayka just think exactly the same?
 
zeke said:
lemme see...

Sunny moves (for guys who aren't just near league min)

1. #10 '24 6'7" 20yr old dman Silayev signed to ELC ($1.075 hit)

2. #2 '22 6'1" 22yr old RFA dman Nemec (extended $7.25 x 5) + 28yr old W Tsyplakov ($2.25 x1) for 2027 VGK 1st + 2028 COL 1st + 2026 NYR 2nd (traded) + #48 ''23 6'1" 21yr old D Morin ($0.9 x2).

3. 4th for 26yr old D Chisholm ($1.6 x1)

4. #35 for #37 + #119

5. #140 for #149 + #222

6. 25yr old W Gritsyuk extended $3.25 x3

7. 36yr old G Markstrom ($6.0 x2) + 27yr old W Crookshank ($0.9 x1) for 32yr old W Rodrigues ($3.1 x1) + 28yr old W Boqvist ($1.5 x1) + 24yr old W Steeves ($0.9 x1)

8. Extended 28yr old C Hischier $11.7 x5yrs (starts a season from now)

9. $4.8m x1 offersheet for Hayton (kinda clever but imo always gonna be matched)


They have about $8.5m to add one forward or $9.5 to add two forwards to this group. or maybe a goalie i guess.

Meier 29 --- Hughes 25 --- Bratt 27
Gritsyuk 25 --- Hischier 27 --- Mercer 24
Rodrigues 32 --- Glass 27 --- Brown 32
Boqvist 27 --- Bjugstad 33 --- Noesen 33

Hughes 22 --- Hamilton 33
Siegenthaler 29 --- Pesce 31
Dillon 35 --- Kovacevic 28
(Chisholm 26)

Allen 35
Daws 25
​
Interestingly their bottom 6 there costs $14.6m, which is cheaper than the Leafs' but still not exactly bargain hunting.
​
Click to expand...

One bit of grace I want to give Chakya (but the Sissons contract makes so fucking hard) is that being done now, right now, has value too. Value hunting is great, but that value according to your models has to be in the market. If it's not, you still have a roster to build and a season to play. Hunting value is an ongoing endeavour for the front office.
 
leafman101 said:
We’ve been adding the exact same player for the better part of a decade over two different regimes, but the analytics guys had nothing to do with it?

Dubas and Chayka just think exactly the same?
Click to expand...

Are both too dumb to evaluate the data themselves though? Pretty easy to push back on your subordinates and tell them that you're looking for another player archetype, no?
 
Yeah, Chayka needs to win and is being aggressive.

Mehta hasn’t made his team better, and who knows how long it will take him to do it.
 
zeke said:
lemme see...

Sunny moves (for guys who aren't just near league min)

1. #10 '24 6'7" 20yr old dman Silayev signed to ELC ($1.075 hit)

2. #2 '22 6'1" 22yr old RFA dman Nemec (extended $7.25 x 5) + 28yr old W Tsyplakov ($2.25 x1) for 2027 VGK 1st + 2028 COL 1st + 2026 NYR 2nd (traded) + #48 ''23 6'1" 21yr old D Morin ($0.9 x2).

3. 4th for 26yr old D Chisholm ($1.6 x1)

4. #35 for #37 + #119

5. #140 for #149 + #222

6. 25yr old W Gritsyuk extended $3.25 x3

7. 36yr old G Markstrom ($6.0 x2) + 27yr old W Crookshank ($0.9 x1) for 32yr old W Rodrigues ($3.1 x1) + 28yr old W Boqvist ($1.5 x1) + 24yr old W Steeves ($0.9 x1)

8. Extended 28yr old C Hischier $11.7 x5yrs (starts a season from now)

9. $4.8m x1 offersheet for Hayton (kinda clever but imo always gonna be matched)


They have about $8.5m to add one forward or $9.5 to add two forwards to this group. or maybe a goalie i guess.

Meier 29 --- Hughes 25 --- Bratt 27
Gritsyuk 25 --- Hischier 27 --- Mercer 24
Rodrigues 32 --- Glass 27 --- Brown 32
Boqvist 27 --- Bjugstad 33 --- Noesen 33

Hughes 22 --- Hamilton 33
Siegenthaler 29 --- Pesce 31
Dillon 35 --- Kovacevic 28
(Chisholm 26)

Allen 35
Daws 25
​
Interestingly their bottom 6 there costs $14.6m, which is cheaper than the Leafs' but still not exactly bargain hunting.
​
Click to expand...
Most of the more expensive bottom 6 was acquired pre sunny. And Rodrigues was mostly a cap dump from trading the big money goalie.

Whereas Chayka acquired a brand new bottom 6 all in a single day.
 
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MindzEye said:
At best it's incomplete. As an organization we just haven't valued it consistently since pretty much ever. Our decision makers have paid lip service to it, but we've never been all in on it. Faulting them for people not listening to the data and analysis they generated is a pretty weak argument imo.

With that said, I'm open to the idea that the department can be improved upon. But we should have some serious concern that Chayka is doing the tear down and remodel imo for reasons stated by others. A bunch of what we've seen in the last 2 weeks has been contrary to data, not supported by it.
Click to expand...
When we assume didn’t listen to, how do we know that the analytics guys weren’t bad at what they did and focused on bad or pointless data and that they were listened to?
 
MindzEye said:
Are both too dumb to evaluate the data themselves though? Pretty easy to push back on your subordinates and tell them that you're looking for another player archetype, no?
Click to expand...

But it’s the same archetype. Defensive forwards with good underlying defensive numbers. At least Chayka also wanted skaters.

I just find it convenient that the analytics guys weren’t listened to but they keep acquiring guys with the same analytical profiles (and are clearly using analytics in doing so).
 
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