**William Nylander signs for 6 years, per Dreger**

[Artnes]

A good read on our 7th best player Nylander and our 3rd best Marner

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl...maple-leafs/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk

 

[Montana]

I don't remember Bobo giving any numbers.

If it gets done, it sure seems like the likelihood (not to be confused with a sure thing) is it being a 6 year deal somewhere just north of David Pastrnak’s 6 x $6.67M. How much North is the obvious key here. I’d be surprised if it’s as high as $7M but we shall see. -BM


Hours before it got done, one of his last comments on the while thing...was he didn't think it'd get as high as where it ended up..(and believed it would end in between the $6.6-9 range that had previously been reported.)

He talked plenty about it on his numbers radio/tv hits.

 

[Montana]

To Bob's credit...he also was adamant from the beginning that the Leafs wanted to sign Nylander at the earliest instance we could, and that we weren't waiting until December 1st to make use of the loophole (which went against what I believed to be the case.)


Which was pretty clearly true since we had to go to the insanely high $7.5m x 6, just to get a deal done and bring the 2-6 cap hit down to the still higher end of the spectrum $6.9m.


Hat tip to him for that insight from day 1.....in retrospect it was kinda dumb of us to think Nylander would sit out and not expect to be made whole.

 

[MindzEye]

I mean.....everything they reported, pretty much aligns with how things appear to have played out.

...bet easier to dismiss if they didn't appear to have things pretty nailed down. (Savard/Elliotte/CJ all had $6.9m about a week or two ago, on a six year term, and that the two sides were still 300k apart....with both feeling they'd already moved a ton)..

We can dismiss it all...but it sure looks like it was accurate.

Was it? All we know is that they invented numbers that appeared to creep closer towards what the comparables were always at the closer we got to the deadline. I have a hard time believing that they were tapped into MLSE's offer at any point in time, or that Dubas would waste time starting at 6 million. That Nylander ended up exactly in the range of comparables suggests that neither side "caved" unless they were being incredibly unreasonable in their previous asks.

This just goes to my RFA comments.....you can only "lose" within a certain spectrum of numbers in RFA negotiations. (Unless you're Edmonton buying a ton of UFA years & paying an Edmonton tax).

On that spectrum....we quite clearly landed on the Nylander side.

Again, I have a hard time buying this because he ended up more or less bang on where the comparables suggest he should of (in terms of cap %, not absolute dollars). If Dubas could have signed him for the Pastrnak cap % on the first day of training camp, I have a hard time believing that he wouldn't have.

Willy got most of what he wanted, and Dubas got most of what he wanted. I don't see a caving in on either side. Willy calling to "make a deal" 30 minutes before the deadline doesn't at all suggest that Dubas got taken out to the proverbial woodshed here.

 

[leafman101]

Willy and Dubas both did well here. Willy gets his big number AAV, and a ton of up front money. Dubas getting Nylander at a cap hit in the $6s for the next 6 years is a huge win for the team.

And all the talk about most important players is silly. The fact that the Leafs have more elite players to pay can only possibly be a good thing.

 

[MindzEye]

Where he landed in his comparables, kinda backs up everything these guys reported....we paid him on the high end of his comparables (especially when factoring actual production....p/60 is great for analyzing what a guy might be capable of, it likely isn't the #1 driver for getting paid tho, versus what you'd actually produced...convo for another day tho)

How do you figure?

Draisatl: 128 points
Nylander: 122 points
Pastrnak: 96 points
Mackinnon: 105 points

In terms of cap% at the time of signing, Willy falls right in with that latter 2 despite out producing them in actual production.

For 5.7 seasons of work, he's going to make $42 million dollars....he was made whole by being paid $8.77m this season for ~55 games.

They're also getting ~18m over the first two years of the deal.

....at nearly every turn, them holding out for this long resulted in them getting what they wanted.

That's a hell of an assumption at the end, that this is what they wanted and not simply what they accepted considering the alternative appeared to be sitting out the season. By all accounts, Dubas was willing to let him sit. The Nylander camp contacted Dubas right before the deadline to "make a deal". None of this really aligns with the narrative that they got what they wanted out of the Leafs. They got a good deal, I'm not arguing otherwise, but I have my doubts that they wanted a "good" deal given the players involved on their side of the equation and how it played out.

 

[Montana]

Was it? All we know is that they invented numbers that appeared to creep closer towards what the comparables were always at the closer we got to the deadline. I have a hard time believing that they were tapped into MLSE's offer at any point in time, or that Dubas would waste time starting at 6 million.

If you guys want to ignore what was reported, frame it as invented ....and invent your own narrative of what was/wasn't offered. Have at it.

For me I see a pretty clear through line between what 4-6 different reporters said throughout the process and where things ended up.

I can't debate each individuals own personal beliefs of what took place.

That Nylander ended up exactly in the range of comparables suggests that neither side "caved" unless they were being incredibly unreasonable in their previous asks.

Where does Nylanders $7.5m x 6 sit in % of cap?....cause that's what he's getting paid for his 5.7 seasons we signed him for.

The loophole allowed us to capitulate further than we ever would have dreamed had it not existed.....but Nylander is making $8.77m this year for ~55 games. He's also getting nearly $18m over his first 1.7 years. That's great work by Gross.

Again, I have a hard time buying this because he ended up more or less bang on where the comparables suggest he should of (in terms of cap %, not absolute dollars).

Even the $6.9m is on the higher end of what people thought he'd get...especially..and this is key.....as our long term cap hit.

I predicted from day one it'd be $6 x $6.85m....nearly dead on the nose....but thought we'd get ~300-400k of cap savings in 2-6...we got none of that.

If Dubas could have signed him for the Pastrnak cap % on the first day of training camp, I have a hard time believing that he wouldn't have.

I can't compete with individual posters beliefs of what would/could have happened....id like to think we'd have done that too. Reporting contradicts that though.....with Kyper/CJ/EF all saying we hadn't even moved to Pastarnak's AAV two weeks ago.

Willy got most of what he wanted, and Dubas got most of what he wanted. I don't see a caving in on either side.

Wily got virtually everything he wanted ....and Dubas held out for as long as he could to get what was best for the club, which was ultimately Wily back on any RFA deal, which is inherently great value.

Willy calling to "make a deal" 30 minutes before the deadline doesn't at all suggest that Dubas got taken out to the proverbial woodshed here.

I mean....given our last offered was basically exactly what he had been asking for (the $6.9m deal that Nylander would accept...that Savard, EF, CJ all had a week ago).....including structure that made him whole for this year's despite missing 26-28 games. Yeah, I'd imagine he was happy to call Dubas and get that deal done.


We all win in this.....Gross just happened to get an incredible deal for his client by holding out.

 

[BeLeafer]

The only reporter out there with any kind of access to Leafs management (and it is limited) is Mirtle. He claims the Leafs were adamant about getting Nylander at a lower hit than he came in. But from all his reporting on this (and he doesn't pay much attention to rumours), the Leafs were probably coming in around $6.3 or $6.4 initially and didn't think the negotiation would go long.

Going from there to $6.97 is not caving by any means. It's ~10% higher than they'd hoped to get. I don't know of any negotiation where a 10% difference from your target is caving.

 

[Volcanologist]

If we're going to actually believe that what the media reported was "basically fact", then you have Nylander looking for a cap hit of 8.5 and the Leafs looking at something in the mid 6s.

the final cap hit was 6.9.

The only way you can think this is Dubas caving is if you DON'T believe what the media reported, and you think the Leafs actually didn't offer him ~6.5, and instead came in well below that to squeeze him, but then were forced upward to 6.9 plus hefty bonus by the heroic Willy and brilliant Gross with their holdout. Not a whisper of such a thing was reported, oddly, but that's what you have to believe to think a 6.9 cap hit when they started out being willing to go to the mid 6's is "capitulation" on the Leafs part.

the bottom line is the Leafs got much closer to their desired cap hit than what Gross/Nylanders wanted for a cap hit. And it makes complete sense that it ended up this way. Nylander had nothing in his toolbelt expect to sit, and couldn't expect any greater leverage next offseason.

 

[BeLeafer]

By the way, according to Dom over on the Athletic, the Nylander signing makes the Leafs Cup favourites: https://theathletic.com/685913/2018...es-historic-month-and-detroits-breakout-woes/

 

[Montana]

Willy and Dubas both did well here. Willy gets his big number AAV, and a ton of up front money. Dubas getting Nylander at a cap hit in the $6s for the next 6 years is a huge win for the team.

Dubas got his numbers in the 6's.......6.969m heh.

Biggest favor Nylander & Gross might have done, is agree to frame is as a $6.9 deal, instead of a $7.5m deal.

Had they pushed for that extra 0.031 and it's reported everywhere as a a $7.5m x 6, (w/ $7m AAV), It'd definitely have been viewed a lot more clearly as the win for Gross that it was.


100%. Agree both sides did well this.....RFA + loophole meant we really couldn't lose.

 

[BeLeafer]

$41.77m prorated to cap inflation is less money than his comparables (Pasternak, Gaudreau, Forsberg). The thing that matters to the client is the overall value of the contract and what the client gets. He came in right around but mostly lower than his comparables. Doesn't seem much for two months of holding out.

If you take the rumours as fact (which I don't), he caved immensely from Daisraitl numbers. Giant cave in, if that was their ask/demand.

 

[Montana]

How do you figure?

Draisatl: 128 points
Nylander: 122 points
Pastrnak: 96 points
Mackinnon: 105 points

In terms of cap% at the time of signing, Willy falls right in with that latter 2 despite out producing them in actual production.

I'm on mobile, so this is getting kinda exhausting & will be my last comments on this for a bit....but we both know the above is dishonest framing.

The single most valuable & highly weighed element of a hockey contract is prior seasons production. (Which isn't claiming previous production, or p1/60 etc aren't weighed/valued....but the #1 dictator of what one will make, is their last season's real production)

Pastarnak was 34 goals, 70 points, in 75 games.
Draisaitl was ~ PPG followed by a big playoffs (he also sold more years of UFA)
McKinnon I don't know off hand and would need to look up...
Nylander was 21 goals 62 points or so if memory serves, with a poor playoffs.

I'm not telling you anything you don't know tho.....and Nylander still got a $7.5m x 6 deal (or $6.969m for 5.7)....

People calculating his % of cap at $6.9 are doing so disingenuously (but potentially unintentionally/subxonsciously) be completely ignoring the $10.2m cap hit in year one.

Nylander signed for a % of cap of ~$7.5m per.

The highest end of his comparables spectrum. (Even $6.9m is, on true production in final year).

Yes our 2019 cap room, and the loophole made it extremely easy for Dubas to ultimately cave to that, because they made a future cap hit of $6.9m easy to absorb.

...but it's all still far closer to Gross' ask than Dubas.

 

[Montana]

The only reporter out there with any kind of access to Leafs management (and it is limited) is Mirtle. He claims the Leafs were adamant about getting Nylander at a lower hit than he came in. But from all his reporting on this (and he doesn't pay much attention to rumours), the Leafs were probably coming in around $6.3 or $6.4 initially and didn't think the negotiation would go long.

Yep, Mirtle also backed the reporting a few weeks back that we were still only offering $6.3m range on 6 years.....

$41.77m prorated to cap inflation is less money than his comparables (Pasternak, Gaudreau, Forsberg). The thing that matters to the client is the overall value of the contract and what the client gets. He came in right around but mostly lower than his comparables. Doesn't seem much for two months of holding out.

If you take the rumours as fact (which I don't), he caved immensely from Daisraitl numbers. Giant cave in, if that was their ask/demand.

You need to properly weight the value of purchased UFA years.


The $7.5m (or even the $7m) for 6 years and one UFA year sold....is very comparable to a 8 years (three UFA) deal in the $8.5m range.

Using $6.9m as ones % of cap isn't honest analysis anyway....as it ignores whole cloth the $10.2m cap hit we take this year, as if it doesn't exist.

It does ...we just happened to be the rare team who could actually swallow it.

$42m in real money, for 5.7 seasons he'll play for us....is the higher end of the comparable spectrum, and much more in Gross favor than Dubas.

 

[JackBurton]

Willy called Dubas at 3:30 yesterday and said let's get this done. This tells me he finally took control of the situation and wanted it done. There is no caving here.

 

[leafman101]

Yeah, but the Leafs don't care how much they actually pay Nylander. Just the cap hit. They found a way to make it work for both sides.

 

[MindzEye]

I'm on mobile, so this is getting kinda exhausting & will be my last comments on this for a bit....but we both know the above is dishonest framing.

The single most valuable & highly weighed element of a hockey contract is prior seasons production. (Which isn't claiming previous production, or p1/60 etc aren't weighed/valued....but the #1 dictator of what one will make, is their last season's real production)

Pastarnak was 34 goals, 70 points, in 75 games.
Draisaitl was ~ PPG followed by a big playoffs (he also sold more years of UFA)
McKinnon I don't know off hand and would need to look up...
Nylander was 21 goals 62 points or so if memory serves, with a poor playoffs.

It's not dishonest at all. You pressed the matter regarding "actual" production with neither of us actually knowing just how much that's weighted vs per minute production statistics in contract talks. I didn't feel like arguing a complete unknown, so I just gave you the raw numbers over the previous 2 years. Should we weight that with the most reason season being more important? Sure why not. But it stands to reason that GM's want to see replicated production before they hand out big ass contracts and we've seen bridge deals happen in the past on the back end of break out seasons likely for that reason. You can disagree with my reasoning here, but do **** off with this "dishonest" horseshit you're accusing me of.

...but it's all still far closer to Gross' ask than Dubas.

You don't actually know this, but keep pushing it as if it's unassailable fact, then accuse me of arguing dishonestly. Come the **** on man.

 

[zeke]

The CBA is expiring after this season??

And people are actually expecting a lockout to happen? What are the big issues expected to cause an impasse? Everything seems to be humming along great.

people are worrying about nothing imo. there won't be any lockout or strike.

as for signing bonuses - all contracts have been going in that direction for years now. this is nothing new.

 

[BeLeafer]

$42m in real money, for 5.7 seasons he'll play for us....is the higher end of the comparable spectrum, and much more in Gross favor than Dubas.

Compared to other 6 year comparables he's at or below their money. Prorate Pasternak to this year's cap, and he's 1.1M behind. Pasternak had higher production numbers, but he also played on a stacked line. Nylander got shuffled around and spent any time with Matthews also with the offensive lead weight that is Hyman.

 

[Montana]

Yeah, but the Leafs don't care how much they actually pay Nylander. Just the cap hit. They found a way to make it work for both sides.

Precisely.

We caves because of a ton of variables in our favor.....RFA's limited leverage, our ability to absorb a massive cap hit this year, an odd league loophole that lowers cap hits in future years, our legit cup chances this season.

....with any one of those variables removed it's extremely unlikely we cave to their numbers.