**William Nylander signs for 6 years, per Dreger**

[JackBurton]

Yeah, can't see a lockout. Too many things going right.
But there will still be a fight. The next Olympics will be guaranteed in the deal (Horrific mistake not doing so in the last Olympics), and something has to be done about escalating RFA contracts and the cap.

 

[BeLeafer]

Yeah, but the Leafs don't care how much they actually pay Nylander. Just the cap hit. They found a way to make it work for both sides.

If the question is whether Gross delivered for his client or not, the money is the key.

 

[zeke]

Yeah. This time they need protection from having to pay talented RFA kids real money. This system was put in place specifically to suppress the salary demands of RFA's and as we see, that's just not happening. At least not at the level they want.

I think if you look at the salary progression of the Chicago group of young players, that's the ideal. Salaries were kept down for their star players (Toews and Kane were both in the 5.5 range on their RFA deals if memory serves) until they cashed in on UFA deals. John Tavares is another good example of what they would consider an acceptable salary progression. But these big ass Draisatl, McDavid, Eichel and shortly Matthews & Marner contracts kind of break the mold. Especially the McDavid and Eichel deals. I don't think they (the owners) ever intended on being in a spot where RFA's were signing contracts that are top 10 in the league in AAV.

So now they need to be protected from themselves, again.

but those RFA deals still produce much more value than those UFA deals, on average.

players SHOULD be getting paid for their prime mid 20s years, not their decline years.

 

[MindzEye]

I'm really curious as to why anyone is assuming that any of the mediots knew a damn thing about the inner workings of what we going on with Dubas & Co. Have we not learned our lesson since Shanny took over? These guys are shut out of MLSE. They're not getting their information from the Leafs front office.

 

[JackBurton]

I am not listening to those idiots They are a waste of my time. I need to listen to people who know more than I. I don't need a fat drunk that gave Komisarek the equivalent of 6 million per telling me he Nylander signing is a disaster.

 

[MindzEye]

but those RFA deals still produce much more value than those UFA deals, on average.

players SHOULD be getting paid for their prime mid 20s years, not their decline years.

I don't disagree. But I don't think you'll see the union rank and file accept the way the money is trending. It's all going towards young guys in their early 20's on long term deals, and squeezing out average veterans. There are a lot more of those average veterans in the union, then there are in star level kids getting big ass deals at 21-22-23 yrs old.

 

[zeke]

Tavares.

~$43m of his 88m contract will have been paid out before he training camp of his third season.

48% of his contract paid out over the first ~25% of his deal.

this is pretty much every contract now, guys, going back to at least Clarkson.

 

[Montana]

It's not dishonest at all. You pressed the matter regarding "actual" production with neither of us actually knowing just how much that's weighted vs per minute production statistics in contract talks. I didn't feel like arguing a complete unknown, so I just gave you the raw numbers over the previous 2 years. Should we weight that with the most reason season being more important? Sure why not. But it stands to reason that GM's want to see replicated production before they hand out big ass contracts and we've seen bridge deals happen in the past on the back end of break out seasons likely for that reason. You can disagree with my reasoning here, but do **** off with this "dishonest" horseshit you're accusing me of.





You don't actually know this, but keep pushing it as if it's unassailable fact, then accuse me of arguing dishonestly. Come the **** on man.

Just to be clear...I'm not saying you're being dishonest (or didn't intend to)......so much as I'm saying if you and me were having a legit talk on how a contract value is decided, we'd both agree career totals/last two seasons, etc.....wouldn't be weighed on the same spectrum as the most recent season.

Total got that you were using a shorthand.

You don't actually know this, but keep pushing it as if it's unassailable fact, then accuse me of arguing dishonestly. Come the **** on man.

Yeah, I'll definitely concede to framing my position around the belief that I'm taking each reporters individual reports that do align with one another, as the basis for my position.

I'm just too lazy to write "From all the reports, I believe that."....none of this is established fact....I'm just trying to support my position with reports that have come from multiple sources, as much as I can.

None of its stone cold fact tho, agreed.

 

[zeke]

Frankly, other GM's should be ecstatic about this deal. We very well might be in the middle of a seismic shift in hockey, where young stars recognize that they have to make sure they get PAID on their second contracts, because there's no guarantee anyone's going to be lining up to give them big money or term if they're pushing 30 by the time they're ready for their third deal.

Nylander's deal held the line on this, though. He came in at below $7M at a figure that's pretty much Pastrnak's deal + inflation. The only thing that other teams could potentially whine about is the signing bonuses, because broke-ass teams/owners aren't in a great position to hand out massive lump sum payments on July 1st, before they've sold a single ticket for the coming season.

But that's one advantage the Leafs have under a hard cap system, and they should keep leveraging the hell out of it. It helped them land Tavares, and front-loading contracts with signing bonuses has also helped them get out of bad deals (like Matt Martin's, for example).



Technically, no. The current CBA runs until 2022.

But both the league and the NHLPA can opt out of the current deal next September, and it's widely expected that the NHLPA will opt out if a new agreement isn't reached before then. The players apparently believe they made a ton of concessions in the last couple of negotiations, and with the league on solid financial footing, they feel it's time for the owners to give back on some fronts.

And as for whether people are expecting a lockout, let's just put it this way: in Gary Bettman's tenure as NHL commissioner, he's negotiated a CBA three times, and each of those times there's been a lockout. First in the 94/95 season, when the season was shortened to 48 games. Next was the 04/05 season, which was wiped out in its entirety. And then the 2012/13 season, which again was reduced to 48 games.

every lockout has been due to nhlpa stupidity.

now that league and players are doing better financially than ever, it would be a crime for them to force the issue again - and I can't see anything they would ask for that would be worth losing salary for.

 

[Montana]

this is pretty much every contract now, guys, going back to at least Clarkson.

From rich teams to big name players. 100%


Guys like OEL didn't get it, or dummies like Doughty who negotiated their own contract without an agent.

 

[zeke]

Dubas wanted a $6m x 6 deal. Buying one free agent year.
Nylander first asked for $8.5m x 8 selling three UFA years.

Nylander got $7.5m x 6.


We're also paying him $17m in real money between now and July 2nd.


He was an RFA so Dubas could never really "lose"....but we're absolutely the ones who capitulated in large part to their demands. The $6.9m per is on the high end of the scale of what we expected and even that's only after using the loophole that cuts future cap hits.

Dubas made the right decision.....Gross & Nylanders simply gained far more from this holdout than we did.

Nylander got $7x6 both in real money and in caphit.

 

[Montana]

Nylander got $7x6 both in real money and in caphit.

$7.5m x 6.....or prorated $7m x 5.7 seasons.


Yes.


His real cap hits are....

$10.2m year one.
$6.969m 2-6

 

[BeLeafer]

Nylander got $7x6 both in real money and in caphit.

And that took the longest holdout ever under the salary cap.

 

[zeke]

$7.5m x 6.....or prorated $7m x 5.7 seasons.


Yes.


His real cap hits are....

$10.2m year one.
$6.969m 2-6

he got $7 x 6

this "5.7" seasons is silly framing.

 

[Montana]

he got $7 x 6

this "5.7" seasons is silly framing.

It just is what it is. We're getting him for ~55 games this season. Instead of the full 82 had we agreed in preseason.

We're absorbing a $10.2m cap hit this year.

We eat a larger prorated 55 game cap hit, and enjoy a more digestible $7m over the next 5 for doing so.

We did lose 26-28 games of his services. (Even if Gross managed to get him paid as id he'd played them)

 

[Montana]

CJ imo is about as trustworthy as they come...


His "Beyond the Headlines" piece today summed it up pretty perfectly...

When it came time to make the deal, Dubas and assistants Brandon Pridham and Laurence Gilman got creative with Nylander and Gross, his representative.

There has never been a contract structured quite like it in NHL history.

The Leafs own tons of salary cap space this season and will start to feel the squeeze in 2019-20, so they came up with a way to pay Nylander heavy right away — to the tune of more than $17 million by July 1, making him whole and then some for the days missed because of the impasse — while gaming the cap system and keeping his AAV to $6.96 million for the final five years of the deal.

They also built in some lockout protection with annual signing bonuses of $3.5-million starting in 2020. They added a 10-team trade list in 2023-24, the only year he was eligible to receive such protection.

They basically guaranteed Nylander would walk away feeling good about the contract while keeping him within a range where they believe Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner can still be signed without breaking up the band.

Now, it must be noted that there are no shortage of whispers out there saying that Dubas and Co. caved on this deal. That they merely gave Nylander everything he wanted rather than crushing him at the 11th hour, leaving the Leafs vulnerable heading into the Matthews and Marner negotiations.

I would argue that he showed strength and ingenuity under the intense spotlight of a negotiation that spanned months. He worked towards an end capable of satisfying both club and player even though it meant stretching a little beyond his comfort zone with the final cap number. He did it his own way.

Dubas will ultimately be judged on keeping his package of stars; whether he can make good on the “we can and we will” promise he made to Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek on the 31 Thoughts podcast. But consider what Matthews and Marner learned about their GM during the Nylander negotiations: That he’s reasonable and business-like even when talks get tough, and he’s sincere in his intentions about finding a way to make things work for all of the core pieces in Toronto.

Dubas could have proven a point by letting Nylander sit out a season at a time when this organization finally seems capable of challenging for the Stanley Cup. He could have gone into the final hour of talks and chosen the nuclear option.

Instead, he showed a dealmaker’s touch and gave his players another reason to believe that they’ve got the right man calling the shots above them.

 

[MindzEye]

Just to be clear...I'm not saying you're being dishonest (or didn't intend to)......so much as I'm saying if you and me were having a legit talk on how a contract value is decided, we'd both agree career totals/last two seasons, etc.....wouldn't be weighed on the same spectrum as the most recent season.

Total got that you were using a shorthand.

Fair enough and my bad for misinterpreting. Yeah, I definitely think they would be weighted, but it's likely not standardized at all. Throw recent production, both raw and rate into a bag and give it a shake. Whichever looks best for each side is the likely starting point each camp. Then knife fight from there.

Yeah, I'll definitely concede to framing my position around the belief that I'm taking each reporters individual reports that do align with one another, as the basis for my position.

and it's not a bad place to start in principle. I just think that it's a potential and significant blindspot in that side of the argument. We know from observation since the beginning of the Shanny era that these dudes are pretty much locked out of MLSE offices. When was the last time one of these legacy hockey media types broke a Leaf story with legit insider knowledge? I think it's telling that the one guy who appeared close in all of this was a former player who isn't legacy hockey media, and got his info from the agents camp. That they were "close" at 6.9 appears to be the most accurate piece of information we were leaked over this entire process, and it was a number way higher than anything the legacy media was reporting at the time.

I guess I just don't see the rationale for Dubas starting where the media said he did. Dubas has put together his front office specifically for this type of analysis. They know the numbers and comparables better than anyone in the game. I just don't see how he starts the process knowing these things, and then comes in a million below. On the flip side, we know that Gross has a history of big asks (the Johnny Hockey saga is pretty much public knowledge at this point)

It's absolutely unknowable, without someone being ridiculously unprofessional and speaking publicly about it, but I ask myself which of the two is more likely. A GM who is pretty numbers driven, with a numbers driven front office low balling the shit out of a player who is actually more valuable analytically than he is according to traditional stats, or an agent known for fairly extravagant asking prices and hardball hold out tactics...asking for the Draisaitl end of the spectrum (that there are some numbers to support Willy's inclusion in). I don't buy any of the old timey horseshit narratives the media was trying to spin. That a young GM "needed a win" against Nylander because of Marner/Matthews. These are the same guys who tell us almost daily why we won't be able to afford to keep a team together when 5 minutes on capfriendly and some basic math shows this to be complete horseshit. I think it's a huge mistake to even allow yourself to be influenced by their narrative building. Especially that now with some hindsight aiding us, we have to accept that Dubas "caved" for them to not be shown to be completely full of shit, yet again.

 

[BeLeafer]

That they were "close" at 6.9 appears to be the most accurate piece of information we were leaked over this entire process, and it was a number way higher than anything the legacy media was reporting at the time.

And they all clutched those pearls tightly once out because they knew squat.

 

[Montana]

Fair enough and my bad for misinterpreting. Yeah, I definitely think they would be weighted, but it's likely not standardized at all. Throw recent production, both raw and rate into a bag and give it a shake. Whichever looks best for each side is the likely starting point each camp. Then knife fight from there.






and it's not a bad place to start in principle. I just think that it's a potential and significant blindspot in that side of the argument. We know from observation since the beginning of the Shanny era that these dudes are pretty much locked out of MLSE offices. When was the last time one of these legacy hockey media types broke a Leaf story with legit insider knowledge? I think it's telling that the one guy who appeared close in all of this was a former player who isn't legacy hockey media, and got his info from the agents camp. That they were "close" at 6.9 appears to be the most accurate piece of information we were leaked over this entire process, and it was a number way higher than anything the legacy media was reporting at the time.

I guess I just don't see the rationale for Dubas starting where the media said he did. Dubas has put together his front office specifically for this type of analysis. They know the numbers and comparables better than anyone in the game. I just don't see how he starts the process knowing these things, and then comes in a million below. On the flip side, we know that Gross has a history of big asks (the Johnny Hockey saga is pretty much public knowledge at this point)

It's absolutely unknowable, without someone being ridiculously unprofessional and speaking publicly about it, but I ask myself which of the two is more likely. A GM who is pretty numbers driven, with a numbers driven front office low balling the shit out of a player who is actually more valuable analytically than he is according to traditional stats, or an agent known for fairly extravagant asking prices and hardball hold out tactics...asking for the Draisaitl end of the spectrum (that there are some numbers to support Willy's inclusion in). I don't buy any of the old timey horseshit narratives the media was trying to spin. That a young GM "needed a win" against Nylander because of Marner/Matthews. These are the same guys who tell us almost daily why we won't be able to afford to keep a team together when 5 minutes on capfriendly and some basic math shows this to be complete horseshit. I think it's a huge mistake to even allow yourself to be influenced by their narrative building. Especially that now with some hindsight aiding us, we have to accept that Dubas "caved" for them to not be shown to be completely full of shit, yet again.

I don't think anything leaked from the Dubas side...I think it all came from Gross.

Savard had his $6.9m on Friday & the legacy guys all had it Saturday night for Headlines, which is in line with them holding formation for that show (case in point all the news we got last night).

I think it's fairly obvious they all either had it Friday or Savard got it, then the others got it confirmed by Gross' side shortly thereafter.

I similarly think all the numbers we heard came from the Gross side..

....the one thing we know from the Leafs side, is what Shanny said about players accepting a little less to keep it all together, which also fits with the numbers we heard along the way.

None of the numbers I've seen reported, what Shanny said, or where it ended up, implies to me people were making things up.


As for any media guys opinions.....I toss them straight in the trash, whether I agree or disagree, I don't conflate those with their actual reporting.

 

[zeke]

It just is what it is. We're getting him for ~55 games this season. Instead of the full 82 had we agreed in preseason.

We're absorbing a $10.2m cap hit this year.

We eat a larger prorated 55 game cap hit, and enjoy a more digestible $7m over the next 5 for doing so.

We did lose 26-28 games of his services. (Even if Gross managed to get him paid as id he'd played them)

eh. I'm with you on the silliness of the "dubas won" narrative, but this 5.7 seasons stuff is just as silly.

it doesn't matter how many games he misses for sitting out or for suspensions or for injuries or how many playoff games he plays for "free" - it's $7m x 6, in every way that matters.