Eric Staal Thread

[andyt]

A couple of things...

Liles also has a NTC although he waived it to come here from TO (and who wouldn't?). Also keep in mind that moving him means a steady diet of Jordan or Murphy (assuming he isn't traded, and what value does he have anyway) in the lineup. While Luke says that trading doesn't equal tanking, moving Liles may mean the end of any playoff thoughts with what Peters has left to replace him. However, it could mean we see Trevor Carrick called up.

Ronnie only has 1 retained salary slot left. So if he is going to move Ward and Staal, he'll probably have to take a bad contract back in exchange for one of them. And our much ballyhooed youth movement has almost entirely been on the back end. Only PDG among forwards has stuck, although McGinn showed flashes before Peters decided to bury him on the 4th line. So maybe Tolchinsky gets a chance if more than Staal is moved, but trading Staal alone probably means that Nash is a permanent fixture at 3C and J. Staal and Rask move up to 1 and 2.

Moving Ward will also give the organization an idea of whether or not they need to pursue a NHL level backup. There are 18 games after the deadline; Lack isn't going to play all of them. They need to see if Altshuller is capable of backing up next year.

 

[cmaleski2]

Tolchinsky hasn't had a great year in Charlotte, although he has been contributing on the score sheet lately after a very rough start. I would be very surprised to see him play for the Canes this year, although he would immediately give the Canes at least one legitimate option during the shootout. If the Canes suddenly have to call up a pile of forwards I suspect the pecking order is McGinn first, then either Derek Ryan or possibly Brody Sutter depending on need. Tolchinsky would be a real reach at this point.

 

[HurryCanes]

Agree. Although if skinny were to get a decent return i would consider it. Lately, Jordan has really been bringing it and i've gotten to point with him that i'm fine with him doing what he does best (which isn't scoring 30 goals>

Great to see the article. I agree with most of it, but do question the value of trading Jordan Staal and/or Skinner. I am not sure what the expected return would be that would put the Canes in a better long term situation than just keeping them. My gut tells me the Canes would lose that trade and it would just add another couple years to the rebuild. Makes no sense on a hockey level unless they just have to dump salary and if that is the case the franchise might as well pack up and move now.

The rest of them...trade away Ronnie!!

 

[jeffbear]

Tolchinsky hasn't had a great year in Charlotte, although he has been contributing on the score sheet lately after a very rough start. I would be very surprised to see him play for the Canes this year, although he would immediately give the Canes at least one legitimate option during the shootout. If the Canes suddenly have to call up a pile of forwards I suspect the pecking order is McGinn first, then either Derek Ryan or possibly Brody Sutter depending on need. Tolchinsky would be a real reach at this point.

Agree on Tolchinsky. I think most of us knew it was going to be a transitional year for the little guy and was likely to be a rough one for him. He's got to re-learn his positioning to allow for his lack of size. That ain't easy.

Ryan on the other hand is a veteran pro and a natural center. If we need one with the big club I'd a darned sight rather seem him up here than moving Nash back to a position that he's proven he can't play. McGinn is a no brainer. He's proven he's ready to play NHL hockey right now and can slot in on any of the four lines.

 

[JamesNorthern]

t minus 12 days till deadline. Looking at the schedule, I am thinking a small number of games tonight (3)... maybe a window to make a trade before the deadline... we'll see

 

[bagopux]

t minus 12 days till deadline. Looking at the schedule, I am thinking a small number of games tonight (3)... maybe a window to make a trade before the deadline... we'll see

If you were one of the many scouts in attendance last night, what would you suggest to your GM, based on what you saw, that Eric Staal was worth in a trade? First-rounder? I wouldn't.

 

[CanadaCanes]

If you were one of the many scouts in attendance last night, what would you suggest to your GM, based on what you saw, that Eric Staal was worth in a trade? First-rounder? I wouldn't.

Unless you think a change of scenery will revitalize and energize Eric, I would have to take a pass based on what I watched last night and many other games this year!

 

[JamesNorthern]

I hear ya. Just hoping that some others outside of the focus here still see that he does have much value, IS in a funk, WILL benefit of a change of scenery, etc.. yup. We'll need a little luck... but if we can't get a 1st overal, we damn better be getting a real bonafied, top end prospect in return - at the _very_very_very_ least! Like Kevin Fiala straight up for Staal? Sure, get it done. Move on.

 

[cmaleski2]

The longer this goes the more I fear that come the end of the trade deadline on Feb 29th, Eric and Cam will still be here, still be without a contract (not the worst thing), and Ronnie will be making a statement that there just wasn't any deal out there that made any sense to make.

RF has said all the right things about the long term and not focusing on the fact that this team is in the playoff hunt, but Eric Staal has completely killed his value to a point where the return in a trade might be so low now that RF is just going to say no thanks and hold onto Eric through the end of the season. Seriously if the trade return for Eric Staal is just a low 2nd round pick and/or a fringe prospect, does it still make sense to take that and get rid of him if the Canes are in a playoff spot or just a point out? Same question with Cam Ward (who probably isn't even worth a 2nd round pick to most teams).

Extend that to Versteeg and Liles as well. If the return value for these guys is a low 2nd round pick or less than that, and the Canes are in a playoff spot or a point behind come the trade deadline, are we really getting enough long term value for these guys to make those trades?

Right now I'm not confident at all that we trade Eric or Cam simply because there is no real value in the return. This is not how I want this to play out, but I'm plenty worried that is what is going to happen.

 

[CarolinaPen]

Any acquiring GM is probably looking at these key stats:

- Eric will turn 32 shortly after the start of next season
- Eric had 61 points two years ago, then followed that up with a 54 point effort last year. Both career lows outside of rookie year at 18.
- This year Eric is on pace to score 13 goals and total 43 points.
- This is not a pretty trend and is made worse by the fact that this years Canes team is the best out of the last 3 years.....by a wide margin.

To get good value for Eric the acquiring GM is going to have to buy into the following narratives:

1- Eric is pouting this year due to contract situation (pretty likely)
2- Raleigh is a horrible hockey market that doesn't support it's team (Mostly a BS reason that helps support #1, but attendance this year leaves the question out there)
3- This is a bad Canes team that doesn't have the talent to surround Eric to get his customary points (Another pure BS reason as evidenced by Eric being 6th on the team in scoring and likely soon 7th when Lindholm catches him)

The whole situation is really mind blowing when you think of how much his stock has dropped over the years. He has been a complete passenger this year and has ZERO points so far in January (6 games). Who does that in a contract year? All that said he has to at least bring back a 1st rounder or a high end prospect or younger NHL player.

 

[CarolinaPen]

The longer this goes the more I fear that come the end of the trade deadline on Feb 29th, Eric and Cam will still be here, still be without a contract (not the worst thing), and Ronnie will be making a statement that there just wasn't any deal out there that made any sense to make.

RF has said all the right things about the long term and not focusing on the fact that this team is in the playoff hunt, but Eric Staal has completely killed his value to a point where the return in a trade might be so low now that RF is just going to say no thanks and hold onto Eric through the end of the season. Seriously if the trade return for Eric Staal is just a low 2nd round pick and/or a fringe prospect, does it still make sense to take that and get rid of him if the Canes are in a playoff spot or just a point out? Same question with Cam Ward (who probably isn't even worth a 2nd round pick to most teams).

Extend that to Versteeg and Liles as well. If the return value for these guys is a low 2nd round pick or less than that, and the Canes are in a playoff spot or a point behind come the trade deadline, are we really getting enough long term value for these guys to make those trades?

Right now I'm not confident at all that we trade Eric or Cam simply because there is no real value in the return. This is not how I want this to play out, but I'm plenty worried that is what is going to happen.

If the team is really into metrics, like they say they are, they will be using a simulation tool close to what the Sports Club Stats sites does. The number of points out should not be the biggest factor come trade deadline and they need to look at probabilities. Currently the sit at 25% chance per the Sports Club Stats site....which is almost the highest point this year. If that number is under 45-50% by the deadline then Ronnie has to make the trade to help secure the future of the franchise. You can't bet long term success on bad odds.

Assuming the return for Eric is lower than we all expect and they only get a 2nd rounder (which I think is not likely...Eric will at least get a 1st or top prospect) the Canes should still do it. The alternative is a worse scenario in the Canes still likely miss the playoffs and lose Eric in the off-season for nothing. Worst outcome, the Canes resign him in the off-season! Statistically the two best players on this years Canes are Faulk and Rask. They were each 2nd rounders. You have to get some return for Eric and the others on this team to give the best odds of getting the Carolina Hurricanes back to the playoffs on a consistent basis going forward.

The rebuild is more important than this year and the team is greater than an individuals needs. Good organizations follow those rules and make the tough calls.

 

[JamesNorthern]

The longer this goes the more I fear that come the end of the trade deadline on Feb 29th, Eric and Cam will still be here, still be without a contract (not the worst thing), and Ronnie will be making a statement that there just wasn't any deal out there that made any sense to make.

RF has said all the right things about the long term and not focusing on the fact that this team is in the playoff hunt, but Eric Staal has completely killed his value to a point where the return in a trade might be so low now that RF is just going to say no thanks and hold onto Eric through the end of the season. Seriously if the trade return for Eric Staal is just a low 2nd round pick and/or a fringe prospect, does it still make sense to take that and get rid of him if the Canes are in a playoff spot or just a point out? Same question with Cam Ward (who probably isn't even worth a 2nd round pick to most teams).

Extend that to Versteeg and Liles as well. If the return value for these guys is a low 2nd round pick or less than that, and the Canes are in a playoff spot or a point behind come the trade deadline, are we really getting enough long term value for these guys to make those trades?

Right now I'm not confident at all that we trade Eric or Cam simply because there is no real value in the return. This is not how I want this to play out, but I'm plenty worried that is what is going to happen.

Maybe I am more optimistic, but personally I would still trade him. Paying the remainder of Staal's salary is still expensive for a whatever happens playoff push during a rebuild. Trade him. At least, take what you can and save the extra dollars. And if we are getting lowballed like that - sorry - we can't be forced into eating any salary.

 

[CanadaCanes]

The longer this goes the more I fear that come the end of the trade deadline on Feb 29th, Eric and Cam will still be here, still be without a contract (not the worst thing), and Ronnie will be making a statement that there just wasn't any deal out there that made any sense to make.

RF has said all the right things about the long term and not focusing on the fact that this team is in the playoff hunt, but Eric Staal has completely killed his value to a point where the return in a trade might be so low now that RF is just going to say no thanks and hold onto Eric through the end of the season. Seriously if the trade return for Eric Staal is just a low 2nd round pick and/or a fringe prospect, does it still make sense to take that and get rid of him if the Canes are in a playoff spot or just a point out? Same question with Cam Ward (who probably isn't even worth a 2nd round pick to most teams).

Extend that to Versteeg and Liles as well. If the return value for these guys is a low 2nd round pick or less than that, and the Canes are in a playoff spot or a point behind come the trade deadline, are we really getting enough long term value for these guys to make those trades?

Right now I'm not confident at all that we trade Eric or Cam simply because there is no real value in the return. This is not how I want this to play out, but I'm plenty worried that is what is going to happen.

Great point by Elliotte Friedman on the Canes predicament in his 30 Thoughts Segment:

"We’re seeing situations (Arizona, Carolina and New Jersey) where rebuilding teams find themselves in surprising playoff contention. It’s similar to Vancouver in the sense that their management is looking at it like, “Are we really this good? Shouldn’t we acquire more youthful assets?” while also thinking, “This really drives up interest. We can sell more seats, our fans are surprised and excited. If we give up, we’re going to lose that momentum and people are going to question if we want to win. Plus, it sends an awful message to our young players.” So, you’re stuck until the deadline, at least."

What CMal noted is so true, the Canes are really in a tricky spot right now...flirting with a playoff berth yet needing the assets in some trades for guys that likely wont be back next season. The old saying something is better than nothing does not really apply here if Francis decides to keep most of his team together and they keep playing well and make the post season. Normally I would say that teams close to the deadline will overpay for players like Eric Staal, but this year is a tough one because there are one helluva pile of players that could be available that are younger and better than Eric...Ladd, Okoposo, Boedker to name a few.

 

[ThinIce]

Watching Eric's play the past few weeks has been eye-opening and I think he has really devalued his "brand." If another team is interested, we'll probably be forced to eat part of his remaining salary (or all, depending on what we could extract in return). And there may be nothing RF can do if the interest in Staal is zero - we might see him conintue to the end of the season until he goes out not with a bang, but with a wimper. I remember the mixed emotions I felt when Roddy was forced to pass his Captain status to Staal. Eric's been a good, loyal player for many years, but his time has passed.

 

[jeffbear]

Seriously if the trade return for Eric Staal is just a low 2nd round pick and/or a fringe prospect, does it still make sense to take that and get rid of him if the Canes are in a playoff spot or just a point out?

Ward and Liles are irrelevant. We wouldn't fetch much for either. Versteeg is an issue as is Staal.

Now, IF I trusted our management to have some discipline for once and not re-sign Eric Staal to an inflated contract in the off season just so they "have a first line center" then, sure. I'm fine with keeping him for now and seeing how it goes. But I don't trust management as far as I can kick Pete Karmanos' giant head. Thus I vote to trade him (and Versteeg for that matter) for what you can get. The last two games show pretty clearly that nobody around here will miss Staal when he's gone, and might go to show that we'd actually be better without him gumming up the works.

Versteeg is entirely a matter of the return. Get an offer for something you like, then go for it. If not, then don't. Easy peasy.

 

[JamesNorthern]

I know I will be laughed at, but to expand upon that... I am selling Versteeg as the missing p-off piece EVERY team needs... his resume proves it. You ask HIGH... I know market value is crap this year... I don't see why we can't ask for a 1st in return. I know. But I said ask.

 

[ThinIce]

Actually, James....I agree and think that Versteeg will be very much in demand by plenty of playoff-bound teams. In fact, I'd hate to lose him and think we ought to consider making an offer, but if there's a decent trade/draft choice available, we shouldn't hesitate. It might be tough for RF to sell this though, as long as we're in the playoff hunt.

 

[jeffbear]

I know I will be laughed at, but to expand upon that... I am selling Versteeg as the missing p-off piece EVERY team needs... his resume proves it. You ask HIGH... I know market value is crap this year... I don't see why we can't ask for a 1st in return. I know. But I said ask.

No problem with that. Set a bar and stick to it. That's all I ask.

 

[JamesNorthern]

No problem with that. Set a bar and stick to it. That's all I ask.

And in his case again, no good offer, not even close? then you have a backup in plan and extend him a year or two at a reasonable price (if he is interested)
not sure about the dynamics of his expiring contract but... ya, milk it baby or keep him on the club. I won't bring up Sekera again..oops. I did.

 

[JamesNorthern]

TSN getting in on the discussion...